Dr.Nagler , I wasn't aware of this. Im curious how do you think they get passed the phase 2 testing. Do they lie about the results ( Which I suppose wouldn't be the first time a drug company did such a thing). I also have trouble understanding how an investment firm would invest so much money if they did not have evidence that it worked. I just hoped there would be more oversight for such things. I still have hopes that will pass stage three testing, im just not sure wether or not I will be participating. I was having doubts before this, and now I have more to think about.
@JohnG I am as hopeful as you man, but I do think Dr.Nagler is doing his job. It would be incredibly irresponsible for a licensed doctor to endorse a treatment that hasn't been approved for treatment. But that doesn't mean you should not go through with the trials.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256697-why-phase-3-trials-fail-what-investors-need-to-know
According
to a McKinsey study analyzing phase 3 trial failures reported from 1990-2002, the results had numerous implications for pharma.Focusing on small-molecules (656 Phase 3 compounds), 58% were successful.This of course implies a 42% failure rate; a staggering sum given that both safety and efficacy should have already been demonstrated.The analysts were able to evaluate in depth 73 of the 212 failures. Shockingly, the results indicated that a full
50% of these compounds failed for a lack of efficacy compared to placebo!Another 30% were for safety concerns and the final 20% could not be proven safer or more effective than the drugs already on the market.Phase 2 is designed to establish efficacy in patients, and clearly there are shortcomings at this stage.The efficacy failures could be attributed to two main causes: mechanistic novelty and endpoint definition.Qualitative endpoints failed more often than defined endpoints.Interestingly, according to the study: