Now that we're getting close to March, I think it's time to talk about expectations. I've put together a series of possible scenarios for the Phase 2A 90-Day Data:
The Worst Case: Multi-Dosing doesn't have any significant effect. It becomes a "bigger" Phase 1/2.
Description:
The data shows that all 3 dose cohorts basically reproduce what we saw in the single dose Phase 1/2, except with 72 patients instead of 15.
The Good:
Word score improvements continue to be clinically meaningful / statistically significant.
Similar improvement rate at 8 kHz + on audiogram, but nothing lower.
The Okay:
Tinnitus scores (TFI) show improvement trend, but is not significant amongst cohorts
EHF audiogram shows improvement but not significant.
Word-in-Noise score shows improvement, but slightly more significant.
The Bad:
No improvement below 8 kHz on audiogram.
Multi-dosing didn't work.
The "Meh" Case 1: Multi-Dosing works, but didn't go deeper per cohort.
Description:
Data shows that multi-dosing does have a stratified effect, but stays concentrated in the EHF (8 kHz+).
The Good:
Word score improvements continue to be clinically meaningful / statistically significant.
Word-in-Noise score shows improvement that is clinically meaningful / statistically significant.
EHF audiogram shows significant improvement (20 dB+, 30 dB+, etc).
The Okay:
4-dose show more improvements at 8 kHz (10 dB+, 20 dB+, etc) + on audiogram, but nothing lower in frequency.
Tinnitus scores (TFI) show improvement trend, and is stratified at each cohort level (more doses, lower TFI).
The Bad:
No improvement below 8 kHz on audiogram.
The "Meh" Case 2: Multi-Dosing works, goes deeper, but underwhelming response.
Description:
Data shows that multi-dosing does have a stratified effect in terms of depth, but the improvements are minor.
The Good:
Word score improvements continue to be clinically meaningful / statistically significant.
The Okay:
Word-in-Noise score shows improvement, but slightly more significant.
EHF audiogram shows improvement, but isn't groundbreaking (10-20 dB, etc).
4-dose improvements go below 8 kHz on audiogram (6 kHz, 4 kHz), but the gains don't get above 10 dB.
Tinnitus scores (TFI) show improvement trend, and is stratified at each cohort level (more doses, lower TFI).
The Bad:
No significant improvement in dB on normal audiogram above 10 dB at any given frequency.
Issues point to synaptopathy being a greater issue than anticipated (need PIPE-505, OTO-413).
The Ideal Outcome: Multi-Dosing goes deeper + significant response.
Description:
Data shows that multi-dosing does have a stratified effect in terms of depth, and the improvements are significant.
The Good:
Word score improvements continue to be clinically meaningful / statistically significant.
Word-in-Noise score shows improvement that is clinically meaningful / statistically significant.
EHF audiogram shows significant improvement from baseline(20 dB+, 30 dB+, etc).
4-dose improvements go below 8 kHz on audiogram (6 kHz, 4 kHz, 2 kHz), and show clear improvement per band: +30 dB @ 8 kHz, +20 dB @ 6 kHz, +10 dB @ 4 kHz.
Tinnitus scores (TFI) significant improvement trend, and is stratified at each cohort level (more doses, lower TFI).
The Okay:
Obviously doesn't go deeper into cochlea.
Hearing isn't restored to "like new" after 4 doses.
FX-322 is still many years from product.