Someone more knowledgeable than me may have a feeling for how often drugs make it to Phase 3 with weird Phase 2s and brilliant Phase 1 outcomes. Some of it comes down to Breakthrough Therapy status and other things.
The only thing I feel a high level of understanding of is how fucked the Phase 2 was. Even if they unblind and say "well, Patient X looks like a faker, blah blah blah," this is all super weak stuff. Phase 2 failed.
Could insane results from Phase 1b push this to Phase 3? I think the probability is very, very low.