Biotechs are risky, it's like a blackjack table, they post good results, you get handsomely rewarded. They post bad results, it stays a penny stock. My eggs are all spread around. It would hurt me if I lost $25,000. I have a very diverse portfolio.I won't buy all now for a number of reasons including - need more data this time around, and stock market may see another pullback. Option players are smart. I wouldn't place all eggs in one basket.
There are many way better and safer investments.
Naaah bruh, I think Frequency Therapeutics will pass Phase 2b, those results are clear, problem is that it only hits up to 8 kHz, that is why it is not such a tremendous result, but in this Phase 2b, they test also up to 16 kHz (they didn't test previously) and there are many other tests that weren't done before + portfolio of subjects is much more precisely selected.Biotechs are risky, it's like a blackjack table, they post good results, you get handsomely rewarded. They post bad results, it stays a penny stock. My eggs are all spread around. It would hurt me if I lost $25,000. I have a very diverse portfolio.
The data isn't there though, which is why the stock has crashed 85% in the past year (and that's on top of the 80% it crashed when Phase 2a failed). They did 3 Phase 1b trials last year, and all of them had poor results.Naaah bruh, I think Frequency Therapeutics will pass Phase 2b, those results are clear, problem is that it only hits up to 8 kHz, that is why it is not such a tremendous result, but in this Phase 2b, they test also up to 16 kHz (they didn't test previously) and there are many other tests that weren't done before + portfolio of subjects is much more precisely selected.
I am 100% sure it will work, and not just because I want it to work, but because the data is there.
I think the point being made is that it's getting harder for them to argue that the reason for FX-322 underperforming is trial design (rather than the drug itself) when the results have been lackluster in multiple trials.There was something funny with one of their trials if I recall correctly. It warped the results I believe.
I thought they didn't test above 8 kHz in previous clinical trials, but it seems like they did, which is quite depressing for a person like me. If it is going to fail, that means nothing helpful is coming within the near few years, but thank you anyway for clarifying facts.The data isn't there though, which is why the stock has crashed 85% in the past year (and that's on top of the 80% it crashed when Phase 2a failed). They did 3 Phase 1b trials last year, and all of them had poor results.
Even more damning is that they aren't seeing high frequency audiometric improvements, even though they tested for them in Phase 2a.
- Phase 1b-111 Open Label Trial: 34% response rate for 10% or more improvement on WR scores over an untreated ear. No placebo group. Months later they retested many of the participants and found 4 new responders. However, in this release they say the total is now 9 responders out of 32, which would yield a 28% responder rate, and an original responder rate of 16% (someone please correct me if I'm messing something up here). Additionally 4 of the 5 original responders were no longer statistically significant (and the last one didn't come back for testing, so we don't know if they stayed statistically significant). So no single time point had more than 16% of patients counting as a responder. I don't know why they originally said there was a 34% response rate when they later claimed there were only 5/32 responders.
- Phase 1b-112 Age Related Hearing Loss Trial: "the Company observed no significant treatment effect with FX-322 administration compared to placebo".
- Phase 1b-113 Severe Hearing Loss Trial: The response rate was 16% for the FX-322 group and for the placebo group - they did not beat placebo. Additionally, the response was for a sound-in-noise test, there wasn't a response for a words-in-quiet test (which is what they had been previously touting).
Compare all of this to Otonomy's OTO-413. In their latest study the response rate was ~40% (and that's for 2 time points instead of 1) and the placebo response rate was ~13%. That tells me that a placebo rate of 15% isn't unreasonable. Given FX-322's track record, I don't see how they can beat a placebo rate of 15%. I certainly hope that it passes and they can continue on with their science, but don't be fooled - they have an uphill battle in-front of them.
They did test with the extended high frequency in the Phase 1Bs and 2A. However, didn't see anything meaningful. The Phase 2A data was trashed by patient bias, and a loose entry threshold, so there isn't much to say about the Phase 2A. As for all of the varying Phase 1B outcomes, the underlying conditions for each Phase 1B were different, and the reason those exist are because the FDA compelled Frequency Therapeutics to test these different population groups. This is why they raised more funds in July/August of 2019. They've mentioned this several times, but there's a lot of cherry picking that happens here to make a "case" for/against the firm. Anyway, the Phase 1Bs didn't produce favorable outcomes for those specific underlying conditions, so the Phase 2B is focused on where they did see improvements on the original Phase 1/2. This is covered in their investor deck, and in a couple different videos since November of 2021.I thought they didn't test above 8 kHz in previous clinical trials, but it seems like they did, which is quite depressing for a person like me. If it is going to fail, that means nothing helpful is coming within the near few years, but thank you anyway for clarifying facts.
I don't understand why it would regenerate inner hair cells and not outer. The whole purpose is to "activate" progenitor (supporting) cells in the cochlea, whether inner or outer. It seems these guys have no idea what they are doing. I hope I am wrong though.They did test with the extended high frequency in the Phase 1Bs and 2A. However, didn't see anything meaningful. The Phase 2A data was trashed by patient bias, and a loose entry threshold, so there isn't much to say about the Phase 2A. As for all of the varying Phase 1B outcomes, the underlying conditions for each Phase 1B were different, and the reason those exist are because the FDA compelled Frequency Therapeutics to test these different population groups. This is why they raised more funds in July/August of 2019. They've mentioned this several times, but there's a lot of cherry picking that happens here to make a "case" for/against the firm. Anyway, the Phase 1Bs didn't produce favorable outcomes for those specific underlying conditions, so the Phase 2B is focused on where they did see improvements on the original Phase 1/2. This is covered in their investor deck, and in a couple different videos since November of 2021.
In a recent interview, the SVP of Product, Kevin Franck actually acknowledged that they aren't seeing audiogram improvements, but have seen them in WR and WIN tests. My interpretation is that he implied that FX-322 is having an effect on regenerating Inner Hair Cells and not Out Hair Cells, or not enough to show improvement on the audiogram.
I would advise not stacking up the past "failures" to predict the Phase 2B will be failure, or that they have some "uphill battle." The uphill battle, IMO was the Phase 2A and the Phase 1Bs. Each trial was designed differently, so again, it's cherry picking to think this way.
I am personally more interested in Inner Hair Cells than Outer Hair Cells as I have 5 dB across all frequencies tested up to 8 kHz, and my real problem is decreased clarity, which is far more important for me.They did test with the extended high frequency in the Phase 1Bs and 2A. However, didn't see anything meaningful. The Phase 2A data was trashed by patient bias, and a loose entry threshold, so there isn't much to say about the Phase 2A. As for all of the varying Phase 1B outcomes, the underlying conditions for each Phase 1B were different, and the reason those exist are because the FDA compelled Frequency Therapeutics to test these different population groups. This is why they raised more funds in July/August of 2019. They've mentioned this several times, but there's a lot of cherry picking that happens here to make a "case" for/against the firm. Anyway, the Phase 1Bs didn't produce favorable outcomes for those specific underlying conditions, so the Phase 2B is focused on where they did see improvements on the original Phase 1/2. This is covered in their investor deck, and in a couple different videos since November of 2021.
In a recent interview, the SVP of Product, Kevin Franck actually acknowledged that they aren't seeing audiogram improvements, but have seen them in WR and WIN tests. My interpretation is that he implied that FX-322 is having an effect on regenerating Inner Hair Cells and not Out Hair Cells, or not enough to show improvement on the audiogram.
I would advise not stacking up the past "failures" to predict the Phase 2B will be failure, or that they have some "uphill battle." The uphill battle, IMO was the Phase 2A and the Phase 1Bs. Each trial was designed differently, so again, it's cherry picking to think this way.
I have a hard time understanding this too. Wouldn't they have seen only IHCs regenerated when they did their pre-clinical work? I think they're trying to reconcile what they believe is a real signal (the improvement of WR scores in 16-33% of patients) with no measurable audiometric improvements. I've heard some speculate that maybe the shot "cleans out" the inner ear, which would explain the corresponding placebo response rate. It could also be that the new hair cells that are created are inferior to real ones.I don't understand why it would regenerate inner hair cells and not outer. The whole purpose is to "activate" progenitor (supporting) cells in the cochlea, whether inner or outer. It seems these guys have no idea what they are doing. I hope I am wrong though.
It's not cherry picking though. Frequency Therapeutics has done 5 studies: 201 (Initial Phase 1/2 study), 111, 112, 113, and 202 (Phase 2a). Phase 2a was botched and its data isn't any good. My post centered around their 3 most recent studies. The only study I left out was their original 2018 Phase 1/2 study which had 23 participants and showed a (then) promising 33% response rate for 10% or more in word recognition improvement. My post centered on their most recent data collection which represents the majority of their data.I would advise not stacking up the past "failures" to predict the Phase 2B will be failure, or that they have some "uphill battle." The uphill battle, IMO was the Phase 2A and the Phase 1Bs. Each trial was designed differently, so again, it's cherry picking to think this way.
201-1 = (Phase 1/2) SSNHL and NIHL Study Mild-Moderately Severe [18-65 y/o]I have a hard time understanding this too. Wouldn't they have seen only IHCs regenerated when they did their pre-clinical work? I think they're trying to reconcile what they believe is a real signal (the improvement of WR scores in 16-33% of patients) with no measurable audiometric improvements. I've heard some speculate that maybe the shot "cleans out" the inner ear, which would explain the corresponding placebo response rate. It could also be that the new hair cells that are created are inferior to real ones.
A while back someone posted a study that was done on a drug that's similar to Audion's drug (which changes support cells into hair cells), and it showed that the new hair cells were "hair cell-like", but didn't function identically to real hair cells. Maybe FX-322 creates flawed hair cells that don't function exactly right but still help out in some aspects? This is just pure speculation though.
It's not cherry picking though. Frequency Therapeutics has done 5 studies: 201 (Initial Phase 1/2 study), 111, 112, 113, and 202 (Phase 2a). Phase 2a was botched and its data isn't any good. My post centered around their 3 most recent studies. The only study I left out was their original 2018 Phase 1/2 study which had 23 participants and showed a (then) promising 33% response rate for 10% or more in word recognition improvement. My post centered on their most recent data collection which represents the majority of their data.
They had 3 big failures last year, and the minor success of 111 is marred by the fact that there was no placebo group and no one who had a benefit at 90 days was shown to have maintained that benefit. Even Audion's drug showed efficacy signals that persisted after a year. Their uphill battle is proving that the signal they're seeing is real and producing a study that definitively shows it.
Honest question, though: how is a lack of benefit against placebo across most of these trials anything less than a worrying sign? I understand the etiologies/patient populations are different, and I don't think it means that FX-322 is doomed or that they can't make it work eventually, but I don't see how it is anything other than a little concerning.201-1 = (Phase 1/2) SSNHL and NIHL Study Mild-Moderately Severe [18-65 y/o]
201-2 = Phase 1/2 Durability (Long term study)
111 = Study of Administration Conditions - All Etiologies, Mild-Severe [18-65 y/o]
112 = Age-Related Hearing Loss Study - Mild-Moderately Severe [66-85 y/o]
113 = Severe Hearing Loss Study - All Etiologies [18-65 y/o]
208 = SSNHL and NIHL Study - Moderate - Moderately Severe [18-65 y/o] AKA Phase 2B
201-1 and 201-2 had arguably favorable outcomes. Same patient groups.
208 is the only one that builds on the 201-1/202-2 study.
The others were arguably different studies with different underlying conditions. One cannot merge them together and claim "it's uphill" when they don't build off of each other, except for 208. Which builds off the 201-1 / 201-2 trials that had positive outcomes.
A couple things to consider:The data isn't there though, which is why the stock has crashed 85% in the past year (and that's on top of the 80% it crashed when Phase 2a failed). They did 3 Phase 1b trials last year, and all of them had poor results.
- Phase 1b-111 Open Label Trial: 34% response rate for 10% or more improvement on WR scores over an untreated ear. No placebo group. Months later they retested many of the participants and found 4 new responders. However, in this release they say the total is now 9 responders out of 32, which would yield a 28% responder rate, and an original responder rate of 16% (someone please correct me if I'm messing something up here). Additionally 4 of the 5 original responders were no longer statistically significant (and the last one didn't come back for testing, so we don't know if they stayed statistically significant). So no single time point had more than 16% of patients counting as a responder. I don't know why they originally said there was a 34% response rate when they later claimed there were only 5/32 responders.
- Phase 1b-112 Age Related Hearing Loss Trial: "the Company observed no significant treatment effect with FX-322 administration compared to placebo".
- Phase 1b-113 Severe Hearing Loss Trial: The response rate was 16% for the FX-322 group and for the placebo group - they did not beat placebo. Additionally, the response was for a sound-in-noise test, there wasn't a response for a words-in-quiet test (which is what they had been previously touting).
If you look at the mouse cochlea image the company has shared, there was relatively few new outer hair cells at the highest frequencies after FX-322 treatment but at the lower frequencies it looks like the outer hair cells had a more robust response.I have a hard time understanding this too. Wouldn't they have seen only IHCs regenerated when they did their pre-clinical work?
I don't see it as something that is "worrying"... I see it as scientific discovery happening in real-time, and in front of the public. This is probably why we see so many dissenting opinions here, because it isn't something the general public is all that familiar with. The FDA advised Frequency Therapeutics to test the drug for these other types of conditions and see if the drug provides a benefit. Turns out for 112 and 113, due to the severity of the damage in the cochlea (severe SNHL) or the underlying condition (age-related hearing loss), that the drug didn't have a statistically significant effect when compared to placebo. If I were a manager at Frequency Therapeutics, that's a sign to me to stop investing in that front; the FDA's recommendation didn't produce enough value / de-risk going in those directions to warrant further investigation.Honest question, though: how is a lack of benefit against placebo across most of these trials anything less than a worrying sign? I understand the etiologies/patient populations are different, and I don't think it means that FX-322 is doomed or that they can't make it work eventually, but I don't see how it is anything other than a little concerning.
I can certainly agree with this, and I see this happening with a lot of other treatments here (most notably, recently, with Dr. Thanos Tzounopoulos' drug).when decisions are being made as learnings are made, it's clear the outside world has no idea what's really going on.
None of us are there at Frequency Therapeutics as managers making the decisions in real-time based on these outcomes.
I've seen this image before but never looked that closely at the differences between regrowth re: inner and outer hair cells and at different frequencies.If you look at the mouse cochlea image the company has shared, there was relatively few new outer hair cells at the highest frequencies after FX-322 treatment but at the lower frequencies it looks like the outer hair cells had a more robust response.
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Since the science is still unfolding in front of us, it's really a guessing game right now. I can't say I've stayed very up to date on the arguments of FX-322 preferring inner hair cells over outer hair cells but it looks like that may be the case with the little evidence we have seen so far, at least at the higher frequencies.I find this a little confusing given that it's assumed that FX-322 works best at restoring the hair cells in the highest frequencies as it enters the cochlea. And indeed, that image represents it working very well on the inner hair cells from the very highest frequencies, but like you said, the outer hair cells don't really start showing up in numbers until a good way down the line.
Does anyone have any sort of scientific explanation for this? I'm pretty sure my EHF are shot, so I would have thought FX-322 would have been, theoretically at least, ideal for me. But now I'm not so sure.
I once talked to a researcher in hair cell regeneration and she said that, for the moment, the main problem when trying to regenerate human hair cells was the appearance of cancer cells as a result.If one could understand how it works in birds when they damage their hearing I guess we would have the answer?
Or is there more to the difference between birds and humans than that our progenitor cells are "turned off" while the ones in birds are not?
I disagree with you as I believe we are already seeing it happen.I once talked to a researcher in hair cell regeneration and she said that, for the moment, the main problem when trying to regenerate human hair cells was the appearance of cancer cells as a result.
ENTs have several times told me that new hair cells would need to be connected in the proper way, each hair cell correctly connected, to the rest of the hearing system.
To me it seems incredibly complex and to be honest I do not think hair cell regeneration will be attained in our lifetime.
Disagree. There are at least 6 companies working on different hair cell programs right now: Frequency Therapeutics, Otonomy, Decibel Therapeutics, Akouos, Hough Ear Institute and a not disclosed partner working with Astellas.To me it seems incredibly complex and to be honest I do not think hair cell regeneration will be attained in our lifetime.
This is something that gives me hope, to be honest. Even better is that all these companies are, as far as I know, working on different approaches to hair cell regeneration, so even if one of them fails, there's still hope for the others.Disagree. There are at least 6 companies working on different hair cell programs right now: Frequency Therapeutics, Otonomy, Decibel Therapeutics, Akouos, Hough Ear Institute and a not disclosed partner working with Astellas.
There are also many researchers in universities working on hearing loss restoration, with a focus on hair cell regeneration.
Honestly there comes a point it turns into throwing enough stuff at the wall that eventually something will stick.This is something that gives me hope, to be honest. Even better is that all these companies are, as far as I know, working on different approaches to hair cell regeneration, so even if one of them fails, there's still hope for the others.
And where are the results?Disagree. There are at least 6 companies working on different hair cell programs right now: Frequency Therapeutics, Otonomy, Decibel Therapeutics, Akouos, Hough Ear Institute and a not disclosed partner working with Astellas.
There are also many researchers in universities working on hearing loss restoration, with a focus on hair cell regeneration.
This comment describes what should be known as the "Tinnitus Talk Paradox"...I once talked to a researcher in hair cell regeneration and she said that, for the moment, the main problem when trying to regenerate human hair cells was the appearance of cancer cells as a result.
ENTs have several times told me that new hair cells would need to be connected in the proper way, each hair cell correctly connected, to the rest of the hearing system.
To me it seems incredibly complex and to be honest I do not think hair cell regeneration will be attained in our lifetime.
OTO-413 reported positive results not too long ago.And where are the results?