Is There a New Dotcom Bubble?

[Ed209]

Just for perspective, I think they are all useless and mostly self-serving.

 

[Exit]

If Cuba is so great, why are Cubans still trying to emigrate to the States? Or did that inflow stop?

Free healthcare, school and low crime rate not enough to keep people happy

I guess fresh fruit, housing and being able to say or do what you want are valued over there

I don't think they're allowed into the United States

Last years however they are at least free to leave if someone will accept them.

 

[Ed209]

I wanna know how this thread got from Tesla and Uber talk to a full-on communism debate

 

[Stacken77]

Free healthcare, school and low crime rate not enough to keep people happy

I guess fresh fruit, housing and being able to say or do what you want are valued over there

I don't think they're allowed into the United States

Last years however they are at least free to leave if someone will accept them.

I'd love to move to Cuba with you and @Damocles. We could share a silent drill free apartment.

 

[Damocles]

I'd love to move to Cuba with you and @Damocles. We could share a silent drill free apartment.

Alright. Let's you, me, @Exit and @Ed209 move over there together then; as long as @Ed209 is bankrolling it with all his crypto gains, so we can live like Kings.

But if that apartment isn't quiet, there's no fresh fruit, and we get robbed of everything but our tinnitus, I'm holding @Exit and @Ed209 accountable, and I'm going to say I told you so.

 

[Exit]

I'd love to move to Cuba with you and @Damocles. We could share a silent drill free apartment.

NO ONE drills in Cuba

We might get whistled after every time we step our noses out in the warm breeze

 

[Juan]

There are new COVID-19 variants, restrictions to air traffic and travel in general... today the stock markets are going to take a hit.

 

[Ed209]

There are new COVID-19 variants, restrictions to air traffic and travel in general... today the stock markets are going to take a hit.

These kind of events always bring me back to this quote:

 

[Juan]

These kind of events always bring me back to this quote:

View attachment 47915

I think the news is someone made up a new COVID-19 variant to punish the OPEC. At the same time they expect to lower inflation, at least the part of it produced by high energy prices, and keep the interest rates artificially low forever...

Who is interested in all those things happening?

The United States.

 

[Juan]

Interesting story. It may be good for this company:

'I'm happy to lose £10m by quitting Facebook,' says Lush boss
Losing 10m followers on sites such as Instagram is a price worth paying for co-founder of ethical beauty empire

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-lose-10m-by-quitting-facebook-says-lush-boss

 

[PeteJ]

Interesting story. It may be good for this company:

'I'm happy to lose £10m by quitting Facebook,' says Lush boss
Losing 10m followers on sites such as Instagram is a price worth paying for co-founder of ethical beauty empire

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-lose-10m-by-quitting-facebook-says-lush-boss

A drop in the bucket or he transfers shares to Meta? lol.

 

[Ed209]

Getting back to our previous discussion, I stumbled across this video by Prof Antony Davies yesterday and he makes a lot of pertinent points (and reiterates many of the things that I've been saying on this thread). To save time, skip to 6:30 where he talks about savings in banks, then keep watching as he talks about raising taxes to pay off government debts.

He says when governments print too much money that it's a tax on savings. I thought that was a very smart way of putting it. Essentially, it's a bad idea to leave money in a savings account in this economic climate.

And as most economists know, raising taxes to pay off government debt doesn't work. He uses data to explain why.

 

[Juan]

A drop in the bucket or he transfers shares to Meta? lol.

Now Bank of America is forecasting a 20% fall of American stocks in one year. There are opinions to suit everyone, with a few investment banks forecasting a downtrend and others like Goldman saying the Dow will continue breaking records...

 

[Juan]

On Friday investors fled from risky assets, stocks, crypto, petrol, everything... it's like going back to 2020.

 

[PeteJ]

The EU is better known as the new world order, collapsing the economy, it's a control measure.

The new world order is not just a region. Go research the Great Reset. This has been planned for a long time.

Also, look up Event 201. I guess the vaxxers accept "New World Order is the EU" but nothing else.

 

[Elmer B Fuddled]

The new world order is not just a region. Go research the Great Reset. This has been planned for a long time.

Also, look up Event 201. I guess the vaxxers accept "New World Order is the EU" but nothing else.

Started with Hitler during World War 2 but then it was known as national socialism. If you read he took away a country defence by telling them he would make that country safe and prosperous. "Give me your weapons", then he went about killing those that did not fit into his national socialism ideas. Jews, gays, mental handicaps, and anyone else they seen as a block in his attempt to his new world order.

The anti-vaxxers are a disgrace to the welfare of other people, but it's their freedom of choice.

 

[Juan]

According to the latest data, published today, inflation in Spain rose to 5,6%.

Pretty crazy.

The ECB is screwing up with its policies... they will end up raising rates at full speed.

 

[Ed209]

On Friday investors fled from risky assets, stocks, crypto, petrol, everything... it's like going back to 2020.

What charts do you follow? They didn't get anywhere near 2020 levels.

Here's the S&P, Nasdaq, Crude oil, and Bitcoin weekly charts. I've mapped on the last month of 2020 for each as a dashed line:

As you can see, they are all miles away from that level.

The markets reacted in a predictable manner; that is, a scary news story equals a flash sell-off. The markets move based on the human psychology of fear and greed, and I think once the dust settles there will be a rally into December, but I could be wrong. I obviously don't have a crystal ball, but December is historically a bullish month. A lot depends upon what news develops about this new variant and if governments start imposing lockdowns again, etc.

There will be a crash of some sort fairly soon (some time next year, maybe), as everything is getting overextended. Nobody can say for sure when it will happen, though, so in the meantime, it's about trying to make our money beat the ridiculous inflation rates.

Don't exaggerate about Friday, though. I personally bought the dip, but that's my strategy (it's not a recommendation because the markets could crash, it's a realistic possibility); I always buy into extreme fear.

 

[Juan]

There will be a crash of some sort fairly soon (some time next year, maybe), as everything is getting overextended.

That's what I was saying. The market reacted strongly to the Omicron variant (to me, something probably made up anyway).

The economy is not performing. It is just riding the wave of ultralow interest rates and monetary expansion. The only group that benefits from this are a bunch of billionaires. The rest of the population is left out.

In Spain people are getting pissed off about all that, and there is already some violence on the streets. Soon there will be a general strike and, if salaries do not go up, we will see more violence and insecurity.

The old methods from the XX century work: striking. Violence. This is how workers fight for their rights, working conditions and pensions, like the Gillet Jaunes did in France.

 

[Juan]

Powell has announced that tapering will accelerate. Let's hope for a fast increase of interest rates too, with several rate hikes in 2022.

 

[Exit]

Powell has announced that tapering will accelerate. Let's hope for a fast increase of interest rates too, with several rate hikes in 2022.

Haha Powell says today the new Omicron bugs makes him and inflation shaky...

I think he loves a long hyped Bull run

 

[Juan]

Haha Powell says today the new Omicron bugs makes him and inflation shaky...

I think he loves a long hyped Bull run

Powell is such an idiot... with worse economic date he stood for tapering in 2013 and actively lobbied in favour of tapering.

Now, after printing trillions, giving extra money to the unemployed in the US, purchasing 40bn MBS per month, etc etc Powell still needs time to think. The guy is a total incompetent.

 

[Juan]

My personal bet is 2 rate hikes in 2022 in the US, and the ECB following the FED and raising interest rates once in 2022 = the end is near!

 

[Juan]

So United Airlines is already saying the Omicron variant is going to affect the demand for trasatlantic flights... back to square one.

 

[Juan]

$75bn takeover of chip designer Arm by rival Nvidia in jeopardy
US regulators move to block 'the largest semiconductor chip merger in history'

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...chip-designer-arm-by-rival-nvidia-in-jeopardy

 

[Juan]

Big Tech and Bitcoin keep falling.

Bitcoin is falling sharply.

 

[Ed209]

Big Tech and Bitcoin keep falling.

Bitcoin is falling sharply.

It's a good opportunity for those who missed out to start a position and DCA, in my opinion. These are the moments I wait for as I hardly ever use my cash reserves during rallies. I accumulate when there's tons of fear as the markets are primarily driven by human psychology.

I predicted this crash yesterday in our group chat; I said if Bitcoin breaks the 21 weekly EMA, then a lot of longs are going to get liquidated, especially those who are overly leveraged.

This is what I screenshotted:

I've already warned people of this in the private section of the forum. It's a key indicator and gives a good probability of where the price will be heading in the immediate short term if it is broken. Nothing has changed longterm, however, as Bitcoin will eventually smash through $100k. I have no doubts about that. For those who like to check on their investments a lot, or like to trade, then there was plenty of time to bag significant amounts of profit during this run.

I feel sorry for the retail investors who buy into the hype and mania phase of runs and panic sell for a loss. At the end of the day, nothing has changed, which is why I topped up some of my positions this morning.

 

[Juan]

It's a good opportunity for those who missed out to start a position and DCA, in my opinion. These are the moments I wait for as I hardly ever use my cash reserves during rallies. I accumulate when there's tons of fear as the markets are primarily driven by human psychology.

I predicted this crash yesterday in our group chat; I said if Bitcoin breaks the 21 weekly EMA, then a lot of longs are going to get liquidated, especially those who are overly leveraged.

This is what I screenshotted:

View attachment 48099

View attachment 48100

I've already warned people of this in the private section of the forum. It's a key indicator and gives a good probability of where the price will be heading in the immediate short term if it is broken. Nothing has changed longterm, however, as Bitcoin will eventually smash through $100k. I have no doubts about that. For those who like to check on their investments a lot, or like to trade, then there was plenty of time to bag significant amounts of profit during this run.

I feel sorry for the retail investors who buy into the hype and mania phase of runs and panic sell for a loss. At the end of the day, nothing has changed, which is why I topped up some of my positions this morning.

Good opportunity?

You have to be joking... stock markets and bitcoin will continue falling.

The FED is going to raise interest rates, according to market consensus, 3 times next year, and it's going to taper faster than expected.

Tech stocks are going to feel the pain..

And governments, sooner or later (probably sooner) are going to have to tax Big Tech. People are sick of paying taxes on behalf of Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and Peter Thiel. They should pay taxes as well.

 

[Ed209]

I'd just add here, that if Bitcoin doesn't recover above the 21 weekly EMA pretty quickly, like within a week or so, then the chances of seeing a bear market increases a lot. In which case, you should expect to see a lot more downside. If it recovers back above that level, however, then the bull market is very likely to continue.

Nothing is certain. You can only ever deal with probabilistic outcomes. That's how you make money. The lower you buy, the lower the risk.

 

[Ed209]

Good opportunity?

You have to be joking... stock markets and bitcoin will continue falling.

I think you are getting confused between investing and trading. Bitcoin is a solid investment where you can put your money and just leave it 5-10 years. Whatever happens from week to week and month to month is just noise at the end of the day; there has always been a lot of volatility. If it drops back to $10k, for example, then you buy more and average down. Never go all in in one move. Buy in tranches.

Problems arise when people get trading and investing mixed up. You can do one or the other, or even both at the same time, but you can't be confused about what your intentions are at the beginning. Leave your emotions at the door.

These patterns are cyclical, and you'll never time the exact tops and bottoms, but you don't need to. A good average will do the job, plus time (years). Our group has collectively made close to £1m the last 19 months or so. I can't think of any other sector where these kinds of gains would have been possible. I posted most of my buys on here when I saw the opportunities (you can go back and track how much they have all gained percentage-wise), and I also told people not to buy when I thought it was too late.

I should add that this is not financial advice! Always DYOR and follow a financial plan that suits your personality and risk appetite.