War in Ukraine — Megathread

[ZFire]

That sounds extremely unrealistic.

What if we applied that to Israel too? It would get tricky...

I'm not sure I follow. What do you find unrealistic?

 

[Lane]

Below is a link to a good article in Vogue magazine on Olena Zelensky. There's a rather haunting picture of the couple in the article which I'll paste below.

Portrait of Bravery: Ukraine's First Lady, Olena Zelenska

 

[Joeseph Stope]

There might be more going on beneath the surface in them "Boardrooms of Power".

Pro-Russian arguments:

A. Legally elected President was hounded from power by the (western-backed?) mob back in ummm... was it 2012?

B. The Russian Minority faced discrimination/persecution in the Don Bas and elsewhere? How true is this?

C. Russia needs a buffer to protect it from the encroaching Nato. {But they could team up with the Chinese, their ideological cousins, or even the Iranians or some such bunch?}

Anti-Russian arguments:

1) A & B above are not valid excuses for conducting a war of aggression with the near obliteration of entire cities. There are other procedures -- like submitting a case with the International court in the Hague -- for settling disputes or UN supervised elections, referendums etc.. to determine what the Ukrainians really want.

{... on the other hand, Vladimir Putin and his army had expected to be showered with roses when they marched into downtown Kiiv. Instead armed with western rockets and know-how, the Ukrainian army seemed to have decimated hundreds of Russian tanks and military vehicles... Those squaddies got burned alive. So... the rookies are a little bit, ummm... upset}

2) After two millenniums of sporadic and intermittent and internecine wars in Europe the hope and the belief was that the previous war was the last war in Europe. i.e. World War 2. But they thought the same about World War 1 as well back in the twenties and thirties. Particularly in Germany with their faith in negotiation/detente with Russia and trade deals with Russia now shattered they must be thinking: "Where do we go from here? Appeasement with Putin? How can you reward someone who shatters the self-fulfilling or self-perpetuating illusion of peace in such a brutal fashion.

3) It might be the good old "Balance of Power" all over again: A fully compliant, re-educated or indoctrinated young Ukrainian population could in twenty years time pose much the same threat as the old Soviet Union did back in the days of the (first) Cold War. That would be 140 million Russians 186 million pop + Ukrainians 43 million pop = ca 229 million pop + natural increase x in one twenty, thirty years time. Throw in Belorus with 9 million to boot.

 

[Juan]

I'm not sure I follow. What do you find unrealistic?

I find unrealistic thinking of a peace treaty that included going back to the original borders of Ukraine as a condition... since the Russians have already conquered part of the territory.

 

[Stuart-T]

I said at the start of this war - one option - let Russia in without a fight. There is no way they could hold the country with a puppet government. Negotiations would be necessary and redrawn boundaries. This would have saved the west hundreds of billions of dollars and countless lives lost in Ukraine - millions of refugees etc.

Russian was always going to win anyway.

This would have avoided a trillion dollar war and countless lives lost - trashing the world economy.

But no - after creating conditions which made this war inevitable - the west now wants to spend years prolonging it.

Sorry - but the propaganda is false - Russia is not losing this war - they will grind it out for years and win.

Here is an article by Simon Jenkins of the Guardian showing how the sanctions have failed:

The rouble is soaring and Putin is stronger than ever - our sanctions have backfired | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian

 

[Stuart-T]

The following (excellent) article sums up pretty well how I feel the Ukrainians could turn the tide in this war, and reclaim territory that's been captured (temporarily) by the Russians. He infuriates me that the U.S. and the West won't give Ukraine the weapons they need to win the war--which they assuredly could! -- I edited the article below with what I thought were the more important points.

You swallow too much western and Ukrainian propaganda. They will always be claiming - if only we had this weapon or a bit more that weapon - we could finally win this war. Where are you getting your numbers?

Personally I don't believe either sides for numbers. Only 10 years after a war ends can it be assessed. At the moment - both sides are claiming they have the upper hands - which is always the case in war.

My money is on Russia to win this war. They have enough resources - long range artillery superiority is enough to level Ukraine to the ground which is what they are doing.

 

[Juan]

Below is a link to a good article in Vogue magazine on Olena Zelensky. There's a rather haunting picture of the couple in the article which I'll paste below.

View attachment 51157

Portrait of Bravery: Ukraine's First Lady, Olena Zelenska

View attachment 51158

So now the Zelenskys are promoting themselves while Ukrainian people die?

Are we going to come to this?:

The guy who dismantled the Soviet Union advertising Louis Vuitton.

 

[Wrfortiscue]

I do too think Ukraine will not win. However you want to look at that.

 

[ZFire]

I find unrealistic thinking of a peace treaty that included going back to the original borders of Ukraine as a condition... since the Russians have already conquered part of the territory.

No one was saying that though. What we're saying is Russia can't be trusted with peace treaties. Any peace deal or ceasefire will be temporary at best and benefit Russia in the long run. Their military needs to be whittled down until they're unable to wage war anymore, that's basically the only solution at this point.

Russia is known to break past treaties, therefore it's all the more reason why we need to give Ukraine the weapons they need and force Russian troops to retreat back to their country instead.

 

[ZFire]

The sheer incompetency of the Russian military has been one of the more surprising revelations about this war. They've shattered the carefully curated image they built up for decades that they are a serious and formidable military power. In conventional warfare, they'd get bodied by UK forces alone. But at the same time, their incompetency makes them more dangerous in the sense that it makes them more prone to commit atrocities and violate international humanitarian law on a much wider scale. This is what corruption gets you unfortunately.

Regardless, the reputational damage done to the Russian military will be a monkey on their back for years to come, maybe even decades. Russian military high command ain't going to be happy about that. The memes have been glorious though.

 

[ZFire]

Massive explosions in Crimea airbases. Russian occupiers and tourists are fleeing en mass as a result.

Ukraine's defense ministry reaction to the explosions:

Ukraine is trolling beautifully here. Russian propaganda still playing stupid. How many times have they insisted that these incidents were all "accidents" now? Off the top of my head, their Moskva flagship, a supply train, and now airbases. It'd be less embarrassing if they just said Kyiv was responsible for these attacks.

Glory to Ukraine!

 

[ZFire]

The Pentagon is now saying as many as 80,000 Russian troops are hurt or killed in Ukraine. While this is being said, the Biden administration plans to give another $1 billion worth of weapons (HIMARS included) and equipment.

The U.S. Defense Department believes that as many as 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine less than six months ago, a top Pentagon official told reporters today

"The Russians are taking a tremendous number of casualties on the other side of the equation," said Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's top policy official. "I think it's safe to suggest that the Russians are probably taking 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months."

Taken together with other U.S. government estimates, the figure could indicate that Ukraine has inflicted more than 10,000 casualties on the Russians in just the last month as new multiple rocket systems have come to Kyiv from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In July, CIA director William Burns said Russia had suffered around 60,000 casualties, including 15,000 troops killed in action. Ukraine's military estimates that 42,340 Russian troops have been killed in combat, nearly triple what Western officials have stated.

Source

It's clear to me that the precision-guided rocket artilleries (with long range capabilities) are making a big impact. No wonder the Biden administration plans to give more military aid. US are justifying any money spent in this conflict because they are seeing Russia crumble as a world power day by day. Russia is pretty much throwing every single piece of gear in their stockpiles at this. Their collective military might is being trounced.

 

[Stuart-T]

The Pentagon is now saying as many as 80,000 Russian troops are hurt or killed in Ukraine. While this is being said, the Biden administration plans to give another $1 billion worth of weapons (HIMARS included) and equipment.

Source

It's clear to me that the precision-guided rocket artilleries (with long range capabilities) are making a big impact. No wonder the Biden administration plans to give more military aid. US are justifying any money spent in this conflict because they are seeing Russia crumble as a world power day by day. Russia is pretty much throwing every single piece of gear in their stockpiles at this. Their collective military might is being trounced.

You believe that do you LOL. The UK defence ministry was saying 2 months ago that the Russian military are down to 1 week supply. In the meantime they continue to grind away and gain ground.

The US and UK military are of course a reliable source of intel - right?

Russia has already smashed Europe as we have inflation over 10% and the threat of blackouts in winter - raising food prices. But of course - Russia is no longer a serious power.

 

[Lane]

Russia dangles freedom to prisoners if they fight in Ukraine. Many are taking the deadly gamble.

(CNN) "Promises of freedom and riches are made to convicts in cramped jail cells. Frantic phone calls ensue between relatives and inmates weighing the offer. Then prisoners vanish, leaving their loved ones to sift through reports of the wounded arriving in hospitals.

This scene is playing out in the convict communities across Russia. With a regular army stretched thin after nearly six months of a disastrously executed and bloody invasion of Ukraine, there's increasing evidence that the Kremlin is making ugly choices in its ugly war and recruiting Russia's prisoners to fight..."​

 

[ZFire]

You believe that do you LOL.

What's more funny is that your entire opinion comes from a position of 'Russia wouldn't be so nasty if the Ukrainians had just given up from the get-go' and to me that speaks volumes about your thinly veiled loyalties. How exactly do you justify the notion of immediate surrender, unless you want a Russian victory? In that silly scenario of yours, it's true that Ukrainians would not be fine with another country just coming in and changing their democratically elected government... A new puppet government would be deeply unpopular and then guess what... that would require Russian forces (oh look, Russian militarized police) to quell any resistance. Had Ukraine just rolled over without a fight, Russia would still be conducting a genocide campaign. And we know this because that's what they tried to do in Bucha, and so many other Ukrainian cities. It's nothing new with them actually as their atrocities date all the way back to the Chechen wars and Georgia, hell we can even go back to WW2 as well.

The UK defence ministry was saying 2 months ago that the Russian military are down to 1 week supply. In the meantime they continue to grind away and gain ground.

You've yet to specify what victory looks like for Russia. For Russia, their objective is to capture most if not all of Ukraine. But if they can't even take 1/3 of the country without losing 40k military personnel, how do they expect to ever take over all of Ukraine and then hold it?

The US and UK military are of course a reliable source of intel - right?

Is this supposed to be some sort of gotcha? The US was sounding the alarm of an imminent Russian invasion as early as November, 2021 and much of Europe spent more time dismissing it than planning how to deal with it.

If there's been any kind of silver lining to this horror show, it's that the Five Eyes appears to be functioning very well. The amount of (especially US and UK) intelligence that's been gathered and then declassified to spoke Putin's wheels whenever he tries his next move has been crucial. I am somewhat encouraged by how well our intelligence frameworks are conducting themselves after a very shaky few years.

But you know, there's always the Kremlin and their state media. Last I heard, they were claiming US funded bio labs in Ukraine were producing Ukrainian super soldiers. You might find that more palatable lol.

Russia has already smashed Europe as we have inflation over 10% and the threat of blackouts in winter - raising food prices. But of course - Russia is no longer a serious power.

Inflation is smothering everyone, and while I think it was going to happen regardless, it's way worse because of Putin. However, I'd advocate ripping the bandaid off. EU nations, especially Germany, should be prepared to damage their economy further, because it would arrest Russia' progress and it's them who are at fault for being so dependent on Russia.

 

[ZFire]

Ukraine has 'good chance' to retake territory, U.S. assesses

Makes sense why Ukraine have begun a proper counter offensive in Kherson now, they've been bombarding the absolute shit out of them and completely wrecking their supply lines. No relief, no food, no resupply and constant shelling should hopefully make the orcs cave quickly, not to mention the supply of heavy duty weapons (HIMARS) and precision munitions must have hit a pivotal point that's warrant this decision to attack. It would be amazing if the orcs just surrendered, there's going to be lots of tension in the next few days. Hope all goes well for Ukraine.

 

[Juan]

Now those fools who run the EU are purchasing Russian gas from third countries at a much higher cost... those EU politicians are fuc..ng idiots.

 

[Stuart-T]

What's more funny is that your entire opinion comes from a position of 'Russia wouldn't be so nasty if the Ukrainians had just given up from the get-go' and to me that speaks volumes about your thinly veiled loyalties. How exactly do you justify the notion of immediate surrender, unless you want a Russian victory? In that silly scenario of yours, it's true that Ukrainians would not be fine with another country just coming in and changing their democratically elected government... A new puppet government would be deeply unpopular and then guess what... that would require Russian forces (oh look, Russian militarized police) to quell any resistance. Had Ukraine just rolled over without a fight, Russia would still be conducting a genocide campaign. And we know this because that's what they tried to do in Bucha, and so many other Ukrainian cities. It's nothing new with them actually as their atrocities date all the way back to the Chechen wars and Georgia, hell we can even go back to WW2 as well.

You've yet to specify what victory looks like for Russia. For Russia, their objective is to capture most if not all of Ukraine. But if they can't even take 1/3 of the country without losing 40k military personnel, how do they expect to ever take over all of Ukraine and then hold it?

Is this supposed to be some sort of gotcha? The US was sounding the alarm of an imminent Russian invasion as early as November, 2021 and much of Europe spent more time dismissing it than planning how to deal with it.

If there's been any kind of silver lining to this horror show, it's that the Five Eyes appears to be functioning very well. The amount of (especially US and UK) intelligence that's been gathered and then declassified to spoke Putin's wheels whenever he tries his next move has been crucial. I am somewhat encouraged by how well our intelligence frameworks are conducting themselves after a very shaky few years.

But you know, there's always the Kremlin and their state media. Last I heard, they were claiming US funded bio labs in Ukraine were producing Ukrainian super soldiers. You might find that more palatable lol.

Inflation is smothering everyone, and while I think it was going to happen regardless, it's way worse because of Putin. However, I'd advocate ripping the bandaid off. EU nations, especially Germany, should be prepared to damage their economy further, because it would arrest Russia' progress and it's them who are at fault for being so dependent on Russia.

Well if news of the Ukrainian counter offensive is true and they are making progress and Russia withdraws - believe me - I will be celebrating. I guess the fact Russia have shut off Nord1 may be some evidence of how desperate they are getting? Too soon to get the champagne out though.

 

[Stuart-T]

The chief of Lukoil and critic of the war died when he fell from a window. Hmmm - careless of him eh. I expect his billions were transferred to Putin before he had his unfortunate accident. It is like Henry VIII - I think who said every one of his nobles are wealthy at his pleasure.

 

[Joeseph Stope]

I've been following the Ukraine war on Twitter. Regrets I don't have the post on hand, but there was this thread about the Ukrainian casualties after the latest assault on Russian-held Kherson. Regrettably, or understandably, it would seem that the Russians were waiting for them.

One young recruit in the hospital described how a shell exploded close to him.

In his words: "It's like there is a broken television set inside my head". This describes my case... high pitched ringing, like the old television sets.

I guess if he got it from the noise of an exploding shell, it inclines me to believe that my tinnitus was also due to noise damage.

 

[Stuart-T]

As I have said on this thread - Russia may well prevail in this war. But what is the cost of victory? Russia was smiling when they were integrated in the world community - hosting big sporting events - exchange cultural programs - trade deals - having some influence and respect in the G20. Now that is all gone. The Bolshoi ballet will not be touring in Europe any time soon. While Putin remains in power and Russia does not embrace western democratic values - we are back to the cold war. Russia will be frozen out for decades to come. Nobody except China, Syria, North Korea etc - some of the worst states on the planet - respects Russia.

Of course this could have all been avoided had the west not flirted with Ukraine and encouraged it to believe it could ever be a part of the EU and NATO. It would have been better to leave it alone.

 

[RAA]

Ukraine making great gains over the last few days, flushing the invading Russians out. Kupyansk, the biggest city in Russian-occupied parts of Kharkiv region and the seat of the occupation "government" is back under Ukrainian control. Prominent pro Russian war bloggers saying Russia has abandoned both Izyum and Liman as well now.

Kharkiv offensive: Russian forces retreat as Ukraine takes key towns

 

[Rockman]

Reports of Russia starting to pull back troops. Ukraine took back Kharkov. Some areas Russians are ready to surrender.

 

[ZFire]

Here's the latest update from the ISW. Big gains in the north.

Reports of Russia starting to pull back troops. Ukraine took back Kharkov. Some areas Russians are ready to surrender.

Yup, and not only are they retreating, but they are also leaving a staggering amount of equipment and vehicles behind too. That should help the Ukrainians keep up with their stockpiles lmao. Russia's chain of command truly is in shambles. They are getting desperate for manpower too.

It really does seem impossible for Russia to keep going on with this. They'll never conquer these people. The only thing keeping this going is one man's ego.

 

[Lane]

It really does seem impossible for Russia to keep going on with this.

Now if only the West would give the Ukrainians the weapons they need, their expulsion of the Russians from their land could happen so much faster. Unfortunately, there still seems to be a prevailing attitude in Europe, particularly Germany, that supplying Ukraine with too many effective weapons will only prolong the war, making the suffering worse.

Parts of Europe still can't seem to envisage the Ukrainians winning. But they can, and will if they're just given the resources to make it happen. They have a large number of committed people ready to do whatever it takes to rid their land of the Russians. The Russian soldiers want nothing more than to get the hell out of there.

 

[Matchbox]

Russia is going to lose this war but the EU will lose the decade.

 

[Paul1980]

Russia is going to lose this war but the EU will lose the decade.

What does that even mean? Like the EU was on a decade-long bender and it is just the lost years?

 

[Juan]

EU politicians are incredibly stupid. Von der Leyen, that disgrace that was kicked out of Germany due to her chronic incompetence, went to Ukraine to take a picture with Zelensky, giving him false hopes about joining the EU.

The reality is the EU does not need 40 more million mouths to feed. We do not need or want Ukraine in the EU. This is a problem no one wants.

EU politicians should just purchase the cheapest oil and gas, and that's Russian oil and gas, because it's EU citizens what matters.

If we want to keep the euro, and prevent the eurozone from an abrupt break-up, inflation has to go down, and at the same time interest rates have to continue going up, just back to the normal 4%, the levels that were normal before the failed Draghi-Lagarde experiment with never ending QE and zero rates.

Europeans are just sick of Draghi, Lagarde, Von der Leyen, Borrell and the like... those useless people should be fired.

 

[RAA]

We do not need or want Ukraine in the EU.

Who is this "we" you are talking on behalf of? The majority of us Europeans are helping Ukraine (as seen by both the military and humanitarian aid) and look forward to welcoming our Ukrainian brothers and sisters into the EU fold (and hopefully NATO) soon. Slava Ukraini.

 

[Stuart-T]

It seems that Alla Pugacheva and her husband are also believing this Western propaganda eh LOL.

Alla - who is the biggest, most revered star in Russian pop - a cultural icon - has declared that she, like her husband - must be considered foreign agents since they both have condemned the war and its "illusory gains".

The Kremlin already dismissed Alla's husband as a foreign agent when he made some anti-war comments.

Bravo Alla! Let's hope some more Russian top names join her. There will in addition be thousands of widows and bereaved mothers and fathers that Putin will have to answer to.