why on Earth did you share this image here!!
Because it was sent to me last year before the UK quarantine went into effect, and proves that that decision (along with others) by the UK government (and other country's, excluding Sweden's) was irrational.
This is unbelievably inaccurate. It's so wrong that I haven't got the energy to even go into it,
It's not inaccurate. Those were the daily averages as of the date cited on the poster.
Even one of the sources of your "fact check" graph, admits the figures were accurate:
Don't trust this comparison of daily coronavirus deaths with other diseases
We researched the number of deaths from each of the diseases in the post and found some variation. But they were usually in the ballpark — except for COVID-19.
But that last part is wrong.
And even the Reuters "fact check" didn't bother to trying to swing that angle, and stuck firmly to the date the poster chose to highlight being the solely "misleading" element of the chart.
Fact check: Disease death rates bar chart does not accurately reflect impact of COVID-19
"This graph is very out of date", Royal Statistical Society statistical ambassador Anthony Masters told Reuters. "By 9th March, COVID-19 was an emerging disease with under 4,000 reported deaths."
Here is the source for the table that is bothering you and
@Tinker Bell so much:
It was put together by
Information Is Beautiful, which is a website concerned purely with statistical data; it has absolutely no political biases, no reason to fudge the numbers, and sources all it's data from official bodies.
I even did the calculations myself to save you time: 3814 deaths (total recorded between January 1st and March the 8th) divided by that time (68 days) =
56.08823529411764705 (recurring).
The funniest part was that neither Reuters, nor Politifact, could identify the origins of the graph, when it took me all of ten minutes... (that's some expert fact checking).
Exactly. They are using an arbitrary number that just so happens to be before the exponential growth curve of deaths."
Yes, this is the same point Reuters and Politifact have made, but there's a big problem with their rebuttal which I'll come to in a minute.
The source on that image indicates it is from March 9, 2020. So not only do not believe everything you see online but be conscious of when data and graphics are created.
You're saying this like either me or the poster have tried to obfuscate the fact. It's there, it's blatant, therefore no one is asking you to believe in a false statement. If I or the poster wanted you to believe these figures were representative of this year's data, then it would be a simple matter of photoshopping out the disclaimer.
The point you're both missing is that
the numbers from that exact time period are very relevant.
So let's return to the: "this is misleading because it's from just before the explosion in deaths" point you made.
Here's a question for you both:
when is a novel virus most lethal/infectious to a population?
I pray you both got the answer before reaching the end of this sentence.
Answer:
when it is first introduced to a population.
The death rate for any new virus should be at it's worst
at the beginning of it's circulation, before immune systems become familiar with it.
Also, everything we know about the typical behaviour of coronaviruses is that their mortality rate is highest in the winter months and lowest in the summer months, hence the middle of March is a very good indicator of when a virus should be at it's worst.
"But the virus hadn't properly taken hold at that point!! It had only been circulating 68 days!!"
Maybe, but not really:
Fact check: Disease death rates bar chart does not accurately reflect impact of COVID-19
Re-testing of blood samples has shown that coronavirus may have been circulating in Italy as early as October 2019, two months before China alerted the world to the new disease, researchers have claimed.
The World Health Organization asked for further clarification from researchers at a cancer centre in Milan after they claimed last November that samples from cancer patients showed Covid may have been circulating for several months in northern Italy - even before the first cases were reported in China in November 2019.
Here's How Likely It Is You Had Covid Back In December 2019
Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'
I can testify to this as I also had what I believe was COVID-19 back in December.
Likelihood is this virus was with us a lot longer than we think, and if October 2019 is correct, then that gave it
4 months to do it's worst to a global population that had not yet developed any resistance to it.
"But the official data shows the virus got much worse after March 9th!!"
Agreed, but the official data was never very accurate or trustworthy to begin with:
COVID is not a hoax, but the numbers are: A look at the first flu season with COVID
In perhaps the most significant panic-fueled move, the CDC changed how mortality statistics are gathered, and COVID-19-labeled deaths became ubiquitous. Previous to the change, COVID-19 needed to be an underlying condition in a chain of events that directly led to the immediate cause of death for the death to be considered a COVID-19 death. Under the new guidelines, instead of having to be an underlying cause of death, if COVID-19 was merely a contributing factor, the death would be labeled a COVID-19 death. Thus, an Alzheimer's patient on death's door who was pushed that last step through the doorway by COVID-19 would now be a full-blown COVID-19-labeled death. Never mind that flu was never treated this way, and such a change made COVID-19-labeled deaths incomparable to any other mode of death; these deaths were now COVID-19 deaths. This change in record-keeping became the fuel to power long-term panic, and as we became more efficient at finding COVID-19, we also became more willing to put COVID-19 on a death certificate, regardless of its level of contribution to the death.
Covid Misclassification: What Do the Data Suggest?
In this case the underlying cause of death was the diabetes or end-stage renal disease weakening the host defenses and the Covid-19 was the precipitating cause of acute illness and eventual death. Another definition would be a patient who dies, has a positive PCR test, but the Covid-19 clearly had nothing to do with the death. An example would be a trauma victim who had no respiratory symptoms prior to trauma and coincidentally has a positive PCR test.
In fact
Worldometers, which the majority of our stats are coming from, has already been caught out fiddling with the real numbers:
Is the Worldometers incompetent or... is there something else?
Yesterday, the worldometers.info made quite a big mistake by reporting 185 deaths in Sweden – when in fact it was 4. Sweden did report an increase of 194 infected people, but only 4 deaths. Because of that, some news media ran some fake stories.
In fact, the whole site which everyone is quoting figures from is questionable:
The Covid-19 pandemic has catapulted one mysterious data website to prominence, sowing confusion in international rankings
The website claims to be "run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers" and "published by a small and independent digital media company based in the United States."
But public records show little evidence of a company that employs a multilingual team of analysts and researchers.
And one more time, I'll return to the most important point:
coronaviruses are worst in the winter.
Is COVID-19 worse in winter?
"Analysis of data from more than 37,000 UK users of the nearly four million using the COVID Symptom Study app reporting symptoms consistent with COVID-19 showed a similar decrease in the severity of reported symptoms from March through May as UK temperatures rose".
Any graph showing more deaths over summer than winter is just an outright fabrication. You can manipulate numbers and statistics in a report, but you cannot manipulate the science behind the behaviour of a virus in the wild.
Conclusion
The graph is accurate and a very good indicator of COVID-19 when it
should have been at it's
worst, according to everything we have learnt in the field of virology.