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2020 US Presidential Election
- Thread starter Born To Slay
- Start date
MemberLet me understand this better. Anybody who invests their money and time into say, a hamburger stand, is not gambling that it will be successful, because there is no chance that it can fail, unless the person either wants it to, gives up, or there is incompetence on the part of the owner(s) of the business. It is a risk that is true, but there is no significant amount of chance that it will fail, to call it a "gamble". Is this what you believe?
Read this: Data from the BLS shows that approximately 20% of new businesses fail during the first two years of being open, 45% during the first five years, and 65% during the first 10 years. Only 25% of new businesses make it to 15 years or more. Feb 28, 2020
- May 16, 2017
- 3,754
- Tinnitus Since
- 04/2011
- Cause of Tinnitus
- Syringing + Somatic tinnitus from dental work
My thoughts have to do with there's no safety nets for the responsible middle and lower class or when they become disabled or elderly. Many young need to live with parents and help out with expenses if they can, which would be cheaper for them than to rent an apartment or pay a mortgage.
Greedy, neo-con, profiteering Republican crony capitalists hijacked their party, while greedy, limousine liberal, profiteering Democrat crony capitalists hijacked their party.
The Trumps, Mark Zuckerberg, the Walton family and Tim Cook - CEO of Apple are laughing all the way to the bank.
Apple does not pay taxes and has hundreds of billions in the bank. Their manufacturing is mostly done overseas. Their phones are expensive. Walmart has a lot of low wage part time workers so that they don't have to pay health insurance, so these workers also need food stamps. The Walton's are super rich. Why is Massachusetts, New York and California in such a mess with all the bio tech, technology companies, large consumer companies and hospitals. It has to do with do with social structure that also benefits the rich and shareholders.
Technology and all companies give our information to companies that contract with them. One way that we're controlled. Directors for many companies (company A) that they manage as being on the Board of Directors will give free data to other companies, plus exposure, in exchange for them to become a client of their fulltime employed company (company B) in some way.
Government contracts are often fixed and both parties are involved.
Rich investors have done well, either Democrat or Republican. All past Presidents have become rich. None of them really care about us. If the rich get taxed more, many in the lower and middle working classes will hurt even more and there's a thousand reasons why. There are pros and cons to Bernie's free education. Many colleges have endowments worth millions and some have billions.
Greedy, neo-con, profiteering Republican crony capitalists hijacked their party, while greedy, limousine liberal, profiteering Democrat crony capitalists hijacked their party.
The Trumps, Mark Zuckerberg, the Walton family and Tim Cook - CEO of Apple are laughing all the way to the bank.
Apple does not pay taxes and has hundreds of billions in the bank. Their manufacturing is mostly done overseas. Their phones are expensive. Walmart has a lot of low wage part time workers so that they don't have to pay health insurance, so these workers also need food stamps. The Walton's are super rich. Why is Massachusetts, New York and California in such a mess with all the bio tech, technology companies, large consumer companies and hospitals. It has to do with do with social structure that also benefits the rich and shareholders.
Technology and all companies give our information to companies that contract with them. One way that we're controlled. Directors for many companies (company A) that they manage as being on the Board of Directors will give free data to other companies, plus exposure, in exchange for them to become a client of their fulltime employed company (company B) in some way.
Government contracts are often fixed and both parties are involved.
Rich investors have done well, either Democrat or Republican. All past Presidents have become rich. None of them really care about us. If the rich get taxed more, many in the lower and middle working classes will hurt even more and there's a thousand reasons why. There are pros and cons to Bernie's free education. Many colleges have endowments worth millions and some have billions.
Democrats ruined all those metropolitan cities. They have won elections in those districts for years. I'm not replying to your direct question.
I think it is Trump's inability to rule the country which is going to make the US enter into a long-term recession.
Brett Kavanaugh also cried his eyes off when he got caught... and accused of sexual assault. When he was about to be appointed to the Supreme Court things were going astray. However, in the end no one cared, which was a shame really, but this is how low the US has fallen.
I hear that Europeans feel that Trump is going to win.
I don't understand why this man is hated. He's funny, has done a good to very good job, as president, and Biden can't, or won't, even come out of his basement. The election is in 44 days. Trump is having rallies, boat and car parades, tweets constantly, has himself all over the news, etc. What are the Democrats thinking, that votes are going to come from Mars?
I don't understand why this man is hated. He's funny, has done a good to very good job, as president, and Biden can't, or won't, even come out of his basement. The election is in 44 days. Trump is having rallies, boat and car parades, tweets constantly, has himself all over the news, etc. What are the Democrats thinking, that votes are going to come from Mars?
Even in the European Union politicians are such cowards and do not charge the FAANG companies any taxes.
And the burden of this new crisis is going to fall on normal families, taxpayers, as always...
As users we also have a choice: not using any services or buying any products offered by those FAANG companies.
- Aug 28, 2019
- 1,496
- Tinnitus Since
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He's hated because he's so divisive, because he's a name caller, because he's so in love with himself, because he is friendly with dubious world leaders who are not his friend, because he sells out his own security services and so on.
This doesn't mean he hasn't done some good things... and I must admit... I do chuckle sometimes when he says things.
I agree, Biden needs to get out more. And I must admit, although I have nothing against Biden, I find him tedious to listen to.
At this point there could be actual camps and Trump supporters would say it is fake news.
https://www.theonion.com/holocaust-survivors-recall-exact-day-holocaust-started-1830685498
He's hated because he's an asshole and because they think he's done a bad job. The approval numbers speak for themselves. Most Americans don't think he's done a "good to very good job".
And those rallies ain't helping his case, having mass gatherings during a pandemic makes you look like a narcissistic asshole who's blind to reality. And enough of the basement shit, Biden just gave a townhall the other day that got over 3 million views. That line is no longer accurate.
The democrats think the votes will come from America, Biden's up big time in the polls right now, both nationally and state by state. Biden is currently winning.
- Aug 5, 2019
- 1,852
- Tinnitus Since
- 05/2019
- Cause of Tinnitus
- Autoimmune hyperacusis from Sjogren's Syndrome
Yeah, I mean even if Biden does end up losing, the arguments being put forth in present time are inaccurate. Biden is certainly winning right now.
EDIT: Here is the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which has Biden with a 77% chance of winning. Notice that according to the graph, the disparity has increased since September 1.
"But polls and forecasts are meaningless! Hillary lost and the polls predicted her to win."
In probability theory, just because the less likely outcome occurs, that doesn't mean it proves the probability projections were all wrong. But yes, Biden can definitely still lose. People who hate Trump need to vote as if he's going to lose.
People really forget how close the 2016 election really was when you look at the numbers. If Biden can maintain his current numbers thru November, he'll win. He just needs to stay out of his own way and let Trump make an ass of himself.
- Aug 28, 2019
- 1,496
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@FGG @Born To Slay @aot @Zugzug
Even if you hate the man, has Trump done anything in his time as president that you thought was good?
Even if you hate the man, has Trump done anything in his time as president that you thought was good?
- Aug 28, 2019
- 1,496
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Here is the thing, the only polls Trump supporters believe are the Trump campaign's internal polls showing they are winning. Trump has said *any* poll not showing him in the lead is fake news and that he's so popular the only way he will lose is voter fraud.
This is right out of the dictator handbook.
Indeed. All thesw studies and percentages mean nothing if people don't actually get out and vote.
- Apr 6, 2020
- 1,031
- Tinnitus Since
- 2016
- Cause of Tinnitus
- 2016: headphones, 2020: worsened thanks to Rammstein
I don't think it was probability that played a part last time. I've read that many people believe that the pollsters weren't reaching people who were a core part of Trump's base. I think Trump believes that too, which is why he thinks he's in the lead (and he might be, I don't know what to believe anymore).
Check out FireThirtyEight's odds for Hillary vs Trump:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The odds are eerily similar to Biden vs Trump (though Biden's lead is a little larger). Now factor in lower turn-out due to COVID-19 (people on the left are more worried about it than people on the right, and not everyone will be willing to mail in a ballot). I think the race is a lot closer than what most people think. I keep seeing articles about a Biden blowout, but I don't believe it.
He killed the TPP and even if not implemented perfectly, I think the tariffs achieved some good. I also approve of the first step act.
I think commuting Alice Marie Johnson's sentence was the right thing to do.
I think he did it purely for political reasons though as if he cared about justice he wouldn't have fought so hard to keep the Central Park Five in prison after they were exonerated by evidence just to avoid having been wrong about something.
- Aug 5, 2019
- 1,852
- Tinnitus Since
- 05/2019
- Cause of Tinnitus
- Autoimmune hyperacusis from Sjogren's Syndrome
I actually agree with you that the 2020 election will be close either way -- especially because of the impact of COVID-19 on voter turnout.
My only point is that a less likely outcome occurring doesn't "prove" the calculations were way off. For example, say Biden wins big. Are we then going to say the 77% number was too small? Maybe it was pretty good, but an uncommon event occurred.
Referring to your link about 2016, Hillary led 71.4% to 28.6%. That's not that crazy. It's very plausible for a 28.6% chance to occur. Especially when you consider that she destroyed him in the popular vote and narrowly lost a few key swing states.
