Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19) and Tinnitus

[valeri]

Personally, I couldn't care less what numbers countries like China and Russia report... I would be surprised if they didn't lie.

Oh please... as if western countries tell the truth!!!!

 

[FGG]

You're correct. As of right now it isn't even close.

View attachment 37540

Can you direct link me to where that appears on the CDC site? When I reverse image search it, I can only find it on a personal blog of a Duke law professor.

 

[Bndsmheowqhe]

Can you direct link me to where that appears on the CDC site? When I reverse image search it, I can only find it on a personal blog of a Duke law professor.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 

[HeavyMantra]

Oh please... as if western countries tell the truth!!!!

I didn't say they do

 

[Lynny]

Oh hell noo

 

[ForestVibes]

View attachment 37552

Oh hell noo

Seems we are all immune to one of the symptoms.

 

[Star64]

Cases dramatically climbing in Australia. Predictions it'll be worse than Italy.

My state (Vic) and NSW are going into lockdown in 48 hours.

I'm worried sick about being forced to continue to work in healthcare.

I do not think you need to worry about being forced to work in healthcare, especially if you are not in good health at present. You need to look after yourself in this case. I am also a Nurse, non practicing now, however I do realize they are calling upon anybody who is available to return to work in our field, even those that have retired over the last three year period and this is due to need.

Many of my friends and family members actively nursing have been told they will be redeployed to other hospitals within the next two week period. So you could say they are aware a big storm is about to hit. That is why they are closing off certain hospitals theater lists now. It is a very worrying time for all, but especially for those that have to work on the front line during this challenging time.

I hope you stay safe.

 

[valeri]

View attachment 37552

Oh hell noo

Ear ringing -
One down, next please...

 

[Gabriel]

Time doesn't matter... I want to know the probability that I'll die if I get the virus. How long it takes before I die (3 days? 2 months?) doesn't change my level of worry. I'm interested in a number that represents my outcome.

The impact of the "how long to die" factor will be reflected in the death rate as the new data evolves and the rate converges to a longer term value.

You can argue that the rate should be lower because of the lack of testing, that is an acceptable argument: as we do more testing, we'll get more accurate.
You can also argue that the rate is going to increase sharply once we run out of hospital capacity: as we reach that point (in some places, it looks like we've already hit it), we'll also get more accurate.

Greg,

Time does matter when talking about statistics. Because you can't compare numbers that started 3 days before (death) and number that started 20 days ago (recovery).

So your calculation is wrong, because the coins you are comparing have not all landed. You can't calculate the outcome till all coins have landed.
You can't compare n (number) at time t and n at t+20days.

An explanation why it is wrong:

If you take the 1st of March in France there were 2 dead and 0 recovered, and maybe 100 actives cases.
If I follow your wrong thinking:
Total of outcome: 2
Total of death: 2
That's 100% of death.

See the flaw?

You can't calculate like that.

 

[Ed209]

This story is scarily similar to ours because just like him, once my wife had said she hadn't been to China, they ruled out Covid-19 without even testing for it and instead diagnosed something else and just handed out antibiotics.

This was also during the containment phase just as it was when my wife first got her symptoms. This is how viruses spread so quickly; when people aren't being tested on the basis that they haven't been to China or Italy, even though they are showing all the symptoms, is incredibly naive and stupid.

 

[GregCA]

So your calculation is wrong, because the coins you are comparing have not all landed. You can't calculate the outcome till all coins have landed.

I agree. Yet that's exactly what people are doing when they are using #death divided by #cases. Such formula makes the assumption that ALL the "coins in flight" are going to have a good outcome.

If we agree that each coin has an independent outcome (a common simplification in statistics, which isn't completely true here for various reasons, but makes computation possible), then the outcome of the "coins in flight" is expected to be the same outcome as the ones that have already landed, for a sufficiently large number of coins (which we now do have). That's the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

The twist to this problem is that we are going to hit a threshold when hospital capacity is reached (some states already have) which will increase the death rate to some newer, higher value. Hopefully, in parallel, there will be efforts that bear fruits (trials, drugs, clever hacks to multiply respirator capacity, etc) to lower the rate.

 

[Lane]

This is how viruses spread so quickly; when people aren't being tested on the basis that they haven't been to China or Italy, even though they are showing all the symptoms, is incredibly naive and stupid.

Absolutely no offense meant but I would be scared shitless if your kind of thinking was the mainstream thinking.

@Ed209 --What is described in this man's experience with "mainstream thinking" health care pracitioners he's been in contact with is beyond naive and stupidity. I would be "scared shitless" if I had to depend on that kind of "mainstream thinking" for my own health and well being.

I'd just like to point out however (again), that almost certainly, MOST of this ridiculousness would NOT be happening right now if the world had heeded the advice of Frederick Klenner, Linus Pauling, Thomas Levy and others, who tried their best to advocate for a more Vitamin C based medical system. And others who have advocated for more of an oxygenation therapies based health care system. -- Flood Your Body with Oxygen by Ed McCabe

Beyond belief as well, is that of all the guidelines being given to stay home, practice social distancing, wash hands often, etc., NO recommendations are being made to people to (relatively easily) sanitize their sinuses when they return from an outing. -- Also beyond belief, is that (apparently) some people on this thread would be "scared shitless" if these incredibly simple and effective things were somehow incorporated into mainstream medical thinking.
-
BTW, a good friend of mine has gotten into the habit of immediately taking his clothes off when he gets home, and throwing them in the dryer at high temperature for about 10 minutes. Makes a whole lot of sense to me, but I haven't seen that kind of common sense recommendation from the "experts" either.

 

[Mathew Gould]

With MGM, it's about their credit ratings. The longer their casinos stay closed - the more effort. MGM was at 32 before the virus and now at 7, but traded as low as 6 yesterday. Questionable is will herds of people quickly return to their casinos.

The same with
but Disney has deep pockets.

A lot of hurt can also happen if positive virus news is announced to stocks that are virus plays. With the 13 companies working on a vaccine, few will be successful. Most of the virus plays are companies deep in debt and their stock price gains - some 10X to 30X will not hold because their business models are too small.


The number one safe play blue chip is eBAY.

As I type this in the middle of the night, DOW futures are making swings of 400 points - down - up - down.

@Greg Sacramento
Trump just said that we can't ruin the economy and business in the US will be open sooner rather than later. Does people going back to work mean the market goes up?? Is he really going to open up business during the peak of this outbreak or is he just saying that?


Can the state governments tell people to stay home still? Do u think its a good time to get back in the market?

 

[FGG]

@Greg Sacramento
Trump just said that we can't ruin the economy and business in the US will be open sooner rather than later. Does people going back to work mean the market goes up?? Is he really going to open up business during the peak of this outbreak or is he just saying that?

He also said since Chloroquine is strong enough for the "Malaria virus" he feels good about it for COVID.

 

[Greg Sacramento]

@Mathew Gould The financial crisis wasn't caused from an economic crisis, it was caused by an alien virus. So financial and money flow indicators and FED leave of absence wage assistance is not much help in determining judgement. To answer your question about the possibilities of people going back to work and more positive real indicating sentiment is to view and look for large short term option calls of market employment agencies. Actual more hiring is needed to balance the hurt and this may take years.

 

[Mathew Gould]

@Mathew Gould The financial crisis wasn't caused from an economic crisis, it was caused by an alien virus. So financial and money flow indicators and FED leave of absence wage assistance is not much help in determining judgement. To answer your question about the possibilities of people going back to work and more positive real indicating sentiment is to view and look for large short term option calls of market employment agencies. Actual more hiring is needed to balance the hurt and this may take years.

So has the market bottomed or close to it?? I don't even know how to do options... Does the states have jurisdiction on keeping people at home or does the federal gov't??

 

[Syd Barrett]

I find the current situation very stressful, especially now that a UK-wide lockdown has gone into effect.

Yesterday, we got an ambiguous email from our CEO that suggests they are "reviewing company roles". There was also a comment saying that this month's payroll would go ahead - the implication being that there had been a possibility that it wouldn't. I am for practical purposes the sole breadwinner for our family and even vaguest notion of my losing my job terrifies me. We are in the process of paying off a number of debts. My wife is a bank (think zero-hours contract) nurse who doesn't keep well at the best of times and who is currently self-isolating. She had been treating COVID patients prior to becoming ill and is now scared of becoming so unwell that she would need to be taken into intensive care.

I woke up after a couple of hours sleep on the sofa tonight with the loudest ringing in my ears I have ever known. I know that stress has always made my tinnitus worse but this is off the chart. But, then, the stress I am feeling is off the charts. Hence, I'm now at the computer typing away rather than trying to get back to sleep.

I've read somewhere that it is common for tinnitus to be very loud upon waking - possibly due to the stress hormone cortisol. So, hopefully, this bout will subside. Today, in terms of the recent spike that I have been experiencing was actually quite good. I hardly gave it a moment's thought.

This is a very stressful time for us all. I hope everyone who reads this is doing well and is managing whatever stress they might be feeling.

 

[linearb]

A US President in these circumstances can't "open the businesses". He can force them to close through varios federal actions.

I'm not aware of any mechanism by which the Federal apparatus can force states to not issue shelter-in-place rules and such. So, if the Federal mouthpieces were to say this all ends tomorrow, you would be likely to have, let's face it, most blue states and maybe Texas continue to treat this more seriously, and an ensuing tug of war over economic and social control.

I think that how that would/will play out depends entirely on the course of the virus. I think if we get CNN footage of Italy-like circumstances (in terms of wartime triage in hospitals) literally anywhere in the US, then you'll have people screaming panic and murder in the streets. On the other hand, if that doesn't happen, then I'd expect you'd see a faster return to most workplaces sooner than later.

A lot of this will also be impacted by how it plays out globally; sectors of the US economy do not function correctly if their global counterparts do not work.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jha-coronavirus-trends-light-end-tunnel

"In order to really get our arms around this infection is we've got to have extensive testing happening all across America. We need to be able to test every single person who's got symptoms, we've got to be able to test people," Jha said. "... Everybody who needs the tests should be able to get a test. We're not there. I think we're probably, I don't know, 10 days away from being able to get there at that point. We'll have a much better sense of where the disease is and then we can make some decisions about what we do next."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/us-coronavirus-updates-monday/index.html

The country's top health official said the number of cases isn't subsiding.
"I want America to understand -- this week, it's going to get bad," US Surgeon General Jerome Adams told NBC's "Today" show Monday.
"We really, really need everyone to stay at home. I think that there are a lot of people who are doing the right things, but ... we're finding out a lot of people think this can't happen to them."

The good news is that we're 7-14 days away from having a much better understanding of how this is going to play out here, short term. Of course there are scenarios where distancing helps but this is still quite bad and plays out as a slower burn over a longer period of time; it could also just become endemic and we'll have to get used to a world where more people die of colds (mostly the elderly, but certainly not always, and with some new potential lung scarring complications that the coronaviruses already endemic to humans do not cause).

 

[FGG]

Video (based on a Lancet paper) that explains how to calculate the death rate more accurately with an ongoing infection (last few minutes goes into this) using Italian and Chinese data.

Spoiler: Significantly higher than the flu. Please stay safe and socially distant.

 

[Greg Sacramento]

So has the market bottomed or close to it

The market's personality (future direction for individual US sectors) will be like having somatic tinnitus. All sorts of problematics are considered and treatment needs to assist central nervous system stability health and pain reduction. For the financial market nervous system it's about health news reports, but health news is more important for our well being.

Markets are up for pre tomorrow. Fear sentiment gauges backed off yesterday.
Taking a financial setback is not like having a health setback.
I care about people's health and well being.

 

[Ed209]

My mom was admitted to hospital last night via ambulance. She is still waiting for a bed 9 hours later. Nobody can visit her and her phone is switched off. The whole situation is a nightmare.

 

[jimH]

I'm so very sorry to hear that, @Ed209! I can only imagine what you must be going through.

 

[Ed209]

I'm so very sorry to hear that, @Ed209! I can only imagine what you must be going through.

It's torture, Jim. Especially considering that the country is on lockdown and so is the hospital, and my mom either doesn't have her phone on her or the battery is dead. We can't go and see her and at the moment we can't even ring her.

 

[Gabriel]

I agree. Yet that's exactly what people are doing when they are using #death divided by #cases. Such formula makes the assumption that ALL the "coins in flight" are going to have a good outcome.

If we agree that each coin has an independent outcome (a common simplification in statistics, which isn't completely true here for various reasons, but makes computation possible), then the outcome of the "coins in flight" is expected to be the same outcome as the ones that have already landed, for a sufficiently large number of coins (which we now do have). That's the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

The twist to this problem is that we are going to hit a threshold when hospital capacity is reached (some states already have) which will increase the death rate to some newer, higher value. Hopefully, in parallel, there will be efforts that bear fruits (trials, drugs, clever hacks to multiply respirator capacity, etc) to lower the rate.

So the data we have for now, for example Korean one, talks about a 0.8% death rate. I take Korea because they have been massively testing their population. This data is scientific, not calculated by the method you are criticizing.

Other countries average a 2% death rate.

That number can be higher if the hospital is overflowed.

But lower if we test people massively (because there are a lot of mild case or asymptomatic cases not being tested).

When people are calculating deaths/confirmed cases, the margin of error is low because what the actual data tells us is that let's say 2% of active cases will result in death.

So we can safely say the calculation would be (#death+0.02*#active)/0.98*#active
With little margin of error and based on a theoretical death ratio of 2%.
Which should be equal to 0.02 -> 2% in most countries.

So while that calculation of #death/#active is not perfect, it's still way closer to reality than doing #death/#totaloutcomes which is, as I explained, not working.

 

[Ed209]

Latest information I have is that a security guard died at the hospital after contracting Covid-19. He was in his 30's and was otherwise fit and healthy. This isn't a rumour, it's been verified and is really tragic.

One of my students got in touch with me earlier so I told him about my mom. He said he is going to check in on her and make sure she is ok and then is going to get back to me. By sheer coincidence, he is working on the same ward this afternoon that my mom is on.

I feel blessed that I know people on the inside as it's the only way that I can find out how she is doing in detail. I can't get through on the main ward phone as I believe the demand is so high. I've been ringing all morning and I can't even get a dial tone. My student said it will be incredibly hard to get through as everyone is ringing it like crazy.

 

[OnceUponaTime]

My mom was admitted to hospital last night via ambulance. She is still waiting for a bed 9 hours later. Nobody can visit her and her phone is switched off. The whole situation is a nightmare.

So, so sorry, Ed. Praying for your family. It does feel like a terrible nightmare.

 

[GregCA]

When people are calculating deaths/confirmed cases, the margin of error is low because what the actual data tells us is that let's say 2% of active cases will result in death.

That's not what the data is telling us, which is the whole point of this argument.

If you start you computation assuming that the death rate is 2%, your computation of the death rate will unsurprisingly be 2%.

 

[linearb]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-mass-grave-sites-requested-21732760

The UK's 9,000 town and parish councils are being told to set aside 30 funeral plots each for virus victims – and earmark a site for a mass grave

The Sunday Mirror understands the requests are part of Public Health England's worst-case scenario planning if the death toll tops 250,000, although PHE did not comment.

Do they make these contingency plans with mass graves in the UK every time there is a flu season? Again, this sounds strange to me, but I haven't been to the UK since the mid 90s.

Latest information I have is that a security guard died at the hospital after contracting Covid-19. He was in his 30's and was otherwise fit and healthy. This isn't a rumour, it's been verified and is really tragic.

viral load at onset matters IMMENSELY from what we are seeing. Someone who worked in a hospital who may have been exposed dozens or hundreds of times has a MUCH worse prognosis than someone who gets a single exposure. We don't have good peer reviewed data to back that up now, but it's super consistent with what we're seeing from the field, and, according to my relative who studies infectuous diseases, it's consistent with what we'd expect from a coronavirus.

Another reason to keep social distancing. You may well end up getting this thing no matter what you do, but getting sick from a single exposure is a lot better than getting hit with 30!

 

[ASilverLight]

I was supposed to start physical therapy to work on my neck and shoulder issues today... the day after isolation rules became even more strict. As such, instead of a physical, in person intake I've had to do it over a video call. It went reasonably well and for now it'll have to do, but that's how utterly dire this situation is. A lot of healthcare simply cannot be practiced anymore.

Likewise, a family member who is still recovering from a stroke from years ago is no longer getting any help/therapy either, as of today, because there's too much of a risk and we all really need to keep 1.5m distance of each other.

 

[Ed209]

viral load at onset matters IMMENSELY from what we are seeing. Someone who worked in a hospital who may have been exposed dozens or hundreds of times has a MUCH worse prognosis than someone who gets a single exposure. We don't have good peer reviewed data to back that up now, but it's super consistent with what we're seeing from the field, and, according to my relative who studies infectuous diseases, it's consistent with what we'd expect from a coronavirus.

Another reason to keep social distancing. You may well end up getting this thing no matter what you do, but getting sick from a single exposure is a lot better than getting hit with 30!

This is exactly what my wife said this morning and why she thinks her symptoms were much worse than mine.