When to Run for the Hills in Noisy Environments?

[Jack Straw]

I think people who are suffering are upset, frustrated and angry with their condition might take it out on some people online. The receiving end shouldn't take it personally, imho.

I also respectfully disagree. It is never okay to take out your own frustrations on others online who are suffering. This is what toxic behavior because you are lashing out at others expense.

But, I think each of us should be a bit sensitive to those who are particularly suffering or perceive our suffering to be more on the severe side. We all should have empathy for each other because each have some unique form of t (and h) but some seem to be having a harder time than others?

Everyone should be sensitive to eeryone's suffering. Just because someone has severe tinnitus doesn't give them a free pass to lash out at people, get special treatment, or get a pass for bad behavior. We should all be treated in the same respectful manner.

I hate when people use having severe tinnitus to justify being shitty towards others. It shows how immature they are because they feel they are owed something for having severe tinnitus, which they don't.

Severe tinnitus should kick people's asses into getting up and doing something for the cause. For example, @Jazzer is one such individual who has severe tinnitus and used his suffering to spread awareness with a video. He is one example of the many severe sufferers here who try to make a difference in spreading awareness. That is what severe tinnitus sufferers should be doing. They should be fighting for themselves and others because they know how bad it gets.

 

[Jcb]

Now as you might expect, I have absolutely no idea what that comment is intended to mean?

But here is something I do know.

Disagreement is good.
Disagreement is healthy.
Disagreement is crucial to the integrity of a forum.
When anybody expressed their views, debating those views is healthy.

Whe can never have unanimity of agreement.
But don't look upon debate as a bad thing.
It isn't.
When views are questioned there is no need for the poster to have a meltdown.
It does not mean that we have achieved apocalypse.
We are all 'human beans.'
We disagree.
That's all there is to it really.
It Doesn't Matter.

Would you really wish for a support group where it's members were railroaded into swallowing some kind of 'party line?'

I will admit to being 'super sensitive' to what hurts the most serious sufferers though.
I try to protect them if possible.

I think I have been respectful.
I have tried hard to be so.

PS - bless your heart @Jcb - honestly mate - you are an inveterate peacemaker.
But disagreement is not the end of the world.
I love you bud,

Dave x
Jazzer.

I agree debate is good, it's healthy and I like that but sometimes it goes from a debate into something more nasty especially when somebody view differs from theirs. It's a "pack mentality" and people just attack, people come here because they are lost, scared and feeling alone especially in the beginning (some stay just to have a chat with people as well) we know particular topics will cause "debates" but when somebody who is scared and needing something of a morale boost asks if there is any positives to having tinnitus then has so many snarky replies they actually apologise for making the post and then leave, that's disgusting, just because we an opinion doesn't mean we have to voice it all the time (I'm well aware I'm being a bit hypocritical by voicing mine btw)

That's just one example of people new to tinnitus or simply struggling asking for support or something they may have been told by a particular ENT to be shot down and set upon by the wolves, that's not support guys.

I'm all for never downplaying anybody's suffering and have always thought nothing should be censored in terms of severity. We need to hear the more severe cases but we also need to hear the positive stories as well to keep the balance (which seems to get torn apart as of late) I've always stood by that wether their tinnitus is loud or not we all struggle and need support.

My point is we need to be kinder towards people, this isn't aimed at anybody particular.

If people see me as "lecturing" them..... Well that's their opinion and they are entitled to it (you see I could voice a particular scathing comment on that but I'm choosing not to)

I apologise for rambling what is probably incoherent nonsense and going off topic, apologies again OP, I'll shut my mush now.

PS Dave I had to look up the word inveterate as I wasn't 100% sure if I was receiving a back handed compliment there haha love ya too my man.

 

[Ed209]

Now as you might expect, I have absolutely no idea what that comment is intended to mean?

But here is something I do know.

Disagreement is good.
Disagreement is healthy.
Disagreement is crucial to the integrity of a forum.
When anybody expressed their views, debating those views is healthy.

Whe can never have unanimity of agreement.
But don't look upon debate as a bad thing.
It isn't.
When views are questioned there is no need for the poster to have a meltdown.
It does not mean that we have achieved apocalypse.
We are all 'human beans.'
We disagree.
That's all there is to it really.
It Doesn't Matter.

Would you really wish for a support group where it's members were railroaded into swallowing some kind of 'party line?'

I will admit to being 'super sensitive' to what hurts the most serious sufferers though.
I try to protect them if possible.

I think I have been respectful.
I have tried hard to be so.

PS - bless your heart @Jcb - honestly mate - you are an inveterate peacemaker.
But disagreement is not the end of the world.
I love you bud,

Dave x
Jazzer.

It was just a joke, and I agree that debate is good and that has always been my mantra here: I say this a lot. However, parts of this thread transcend beyond this and go to places that are unnecessary and unhelpful to everyone. My intentions were good from the outset and I was only trying to be helpful, but it doesn't seem to have been interpreted or taken that way. Like I said many posts back, I apologise for the pointless arguing as it's not what a support forum is all about and it's not something that I get a kick out of. I never told flamingo that she was imagining it, for example, but for some reason, this seemed to be the main consensus of what was taken away from my posts. I was trying to be objective by giving her some possibilities of what may have been causing her problem (based on what was known), and from my perspective, it was met with anger and annoyance. Some of the posts thereafter kinda made me wonder why I bother.

I have nothing against anyone, but the head against the brick wall emoji summed this thread up for me.

 

[Jazzer]

However, parts of this thread transcend beyond this and go to places that are unnecessary and unhelpful to everyone.

Well I obviously missed these parts Ed.
I imagine they were earlier than my intervention, but I can't be sure.
I personally do my best not to interject unless I feel that some vulnerable person is getting hurt.
However - we are all fallible of course.

 

[PeteJ]

I think those arguing should let bygones be bygones. We are all in the same boat. I also think these conditions cause some of these behaviors because of what mental state it can put you in.

I know no one wants to read my hysterical side but my t is high pitched, high frequency whine and I feel so alone, helpless, hopeless.

I don't know how I can keep going. Nothing anyone can say will change this t. I wonder if I did something wrong. Was it a setback?

So, when someone here is saying something bad, maybe that is their way of lashing out in frustration? Who knows. It's psychology? I am not condoning it and it won't help them.

But, we all need support here, right?

I just don't think nothing short of my t decreasing in intensity, pitch, frequency and volume will help, even with 'forum hugs'

 

[Jazzer]

I just don't think nothing short of my t decreasing in intensity, pitch, frequency and volume will help, even with 'forum hugs'

Pete - I am so sorry buddy - as indeed I am for all of us - me included!
If you've seen many of my posts you may have seen me mention my morning routine.
It may seem like a pretty trite suggestion, but it honestly does help me to acclimatise.
———————————————————
Very briefly now then:

A nice hot bath,
Head slightly to one side to leave tongue out of the throat,
Eyes closed,
Teeth apart,
Lips closed,
Hear your sounds of course,
But DO NOT listen to them,
Ask your tummy to take over your breathing
at your own natural rhythm,
Silently think the word - 'Easy,'

eas......ey eas......ey eas.....ey eas.......ey
out. in. out. in. out. in. out......in.

Hopefully your comfort level will help you to drift away into a nice meditative slumber.
———————————————————

After some practice, after some days, you may find that the intrusiveness throughout the day, may not be quite so insistent.

Of course I cannot promise anything.
Some days I have a better day, some days not.
I've done this every day for five years.
Best wishes buddy
love
Dave x
Jazzer

 

[david c]

Everyone is different and your experience doesn't reflect on others. There is a difference between sharing your experience and telling someone it will also happen/affect them.

So maybe you would like to quote the part of thread in which I said that my experience will definitely happen for them? Or maybe you can't because nowhere did I say that.

You've denounced others "shitty behaviour" but frankly your own on this thread has been full of lies and s***.

 

[PeteJ]

You're a good guy and person, Jazzer.
I appreciate you trying to help. So many good people here.

I haven't cried this much since my mom died. I will try your suggestions but my place sucks. Anyway, I will try anything if it seems safe to do so.

 

[Bill Bauer]

You have to realize a few people on here (not mentioning names or suggesting it is anyone in this thread) use tinnitus as a justification for other unhealthy behaviors that they always had.

If you are talking about me, you couldn't be further from the truth. It never occurs to me to justify my behaviour to anyone. I know what behaviour is right for me, and that's enough of a justification for me.

People with tinnitus aren't recklessly going to concerts and standing next to the speakers. You can do stuff responsibly with hearing protection in mind and not develop severe tinnitus.

You can also do what the guidelines for the healthy people tell you is responsible (but what the experiences of many people here imply is IRRESPONSIBLE/RECKLESS), and end up developing a permanent spike in tinnitus. Now what?

it was because the conversation was filled with people (A) saying that other people (B) should avoid certain situations because of how certain situations affect them (A) personally.

No, that wasn't it. A were making B aware that there is a Risk that B will develop a permanent spike as a result of certain behaviours that B would naturally think are safe. That was all. At that point the people in group C tried to shut A up.

There is a difference between sharing your experience and telling someone it will also happen/affect them.

Nobody had done the above, though. Saying an activity is risky is not the same as saying that there is a 100% chance that the activity will turn out badly.

 

[Jack Straw]

So maybe you would like to quote the part of thread in which I said that my experience will definitely happen for them? Or maybe you can't because nowhere did I say that.

You've denounced others "shitty behaviour" but frankly your own on this thread has been full of lies and s***.

"Your" wasn't specific to you, but to the group of people who were giving statements expressing how someone else's tinnitus would be impacted.

Please show me my other lies and "s***"

 

[Flamingo1]

I never told flamingo that she was imagining it, for example, but for some reason, this seemed to be the main consensus of what was taken away from my posts. I was trying to be objective by giving her some possibilities of what may have been causing her problem (based on what was known), and from my perspective, it was met with anger and annoyance. Some of the posts thereafter kinda made me wonder why I bother.

You were met with anger and annoyance by me because you disregarded what I had to say about my situation and continued to insist that the fullness and pain I felt after sitting next to a live band for two hours straight was due to ear wax and/or my imagination, even AFTER I told you that the symptoms were only felt in one ear - the ear with tinnitus and 50 dB 4 Khz notched hearing LOSS! I wanted to drink your kool-aid and believe that it was all in my head but found it very difficult in the midst of a tinnitus spike in my bad ear, after a noisier than usual weekend. The logic just wasn't in your favor.

I do appreciate the time and effort you spent responding to my post and absolutely hold nothing against you, but I don't agree with your armchair diagnosis. It's almost as if you can't imagine that one can be physically affected by 70 dB or lower noise levels, which many of us are. On the bright side, you certainly helped to make this a popular thread!

 

[Ed209]

You were met with anger and annoyance by me because you disregarded what I had to say about my situation and continued to insist that the fullness and pain I felt after sitting next to a live band for two hours straight was due to ear wax and/or my imagination, even AFTER I told you that the symptoms were only felt in one ear - the ear with tinnitus and 50 dB 4 Khz notched hearing LOSS! I wanted to drink your kool-aid and believe that it was all in my head but found it very difficult in the midst of a tinnitus spike in my bad ear, after a noisier than usual weekend. The logic just wasn't in your favor.

I do appreciate the time and effort you spent responding to my post and absolutely hold nothing against you, but I don't agree with your armchair diagnosis. It's almost as if you can't imagine that one can be physically affected by 70 dB or lower noise levels, which many of us are. On the bright side, you certainly helped to make this a popular thread!

I didn't insist upon anything, you did. You asked me how anxiety could explain it because it was one thing upon the list of possibilities I wrote down. When I explained it, because you specifically asked me to, you got really angry about it which made no sense to me at all. I never said you were imagining it and was just trying to help you the whole time, but it eventually turned into an unnecessary argument where you became obsessed with the idea that it was in your head. Even after I walked away, multiple posts were made to continue the argument which made me wonder if the whole thing was just a load of trolling. I give up and won't bother in future, but I sincerely wish you all the best of luck.

 

[Bill Bauer]

I never said you were imagining it

Really?

There are cases of people going blind purely based on their mind convincing them of it, even though they were not medically blind. So, do not underestimate the effects of your thoughts. Our entire experience of reality is in our mind.

Based on her initial story it seemed really far fetched that any acoustic trauma could have occurred, and it's not my idea of what's safe and what isn't, but medical science's.

By the way, there hasn't been any studies into what kind of a noise is safe and what is not safe (and is capable of causing permanent spikes) for tinnitus sufferers. So science has nothing to do with it.

 

[Flamingo1]

I didn't insist upon anything, you did. You asked me how anxiety could explain it because it was one thing upon the list of possibilities I wrote down.

Dude, you are completely delusional. That question -if I even asked it, was purely rhetorical and served to highlight the idiocy of your diagnosis. In fact, you just proved my point: You don't digest what people say. (I imagine this happens in real life too.) Your ego is so huge that you just assume that you know what people are feeling/thinking/sayng without actually hearing them, and that we are all dying to know what you think because you have a friend of a friend who is a medical doctor.

Since you don't have an MD after your name, I would never seriously ask you how anxiety translates into physical symptoms such as ear pain, aural fullness, and increased tinnitus after damaging noise exposure, not to mention that would be a completely idiotic question to begin with.

BTW, for those of you who are offended by this thread, STOP READING IT. I myself am not afraid of a lively debate and difference of opinion. Plus it makes for an interesting thread. And if getting a point across involves pointing out pathological characteristics of a poster in order to make a point, so be it!

 

[Ed209]

Really?

Dude, you are completely delusional. That question -if I even asked it, was purely rhetorical and served to highlight the idiocy of your diagnosis

This is really getting quite tiresome now. Where did I give a definitive armchair diagnosis that said it was in your head? You've been throwing insults at me, but I still tried to help you. Instead of answering my questions - where I was trying to understand what had happened - you continued to be rude and condescending in your replies.

It saddens me to say that the atmosphere in the support section isn't what it used to be and it seems that people with a supportive message are often vilified and driven away. There is a nastiness that has bubbled to the surface that isn't helping anyone and I certainly don't come here for my own health, even though I have some pretty significant health problems right now. Over the last 6 months or so I have received some pretty vile messages and this shows how the tone has changed over the last 4 years. I walked away and even that wasn't enough with constant messages being posted trying to bait me into replying just for the sake of arguing. I don't understand the deal here, but it seems you all just love fighting and arguing and some of the snide remarks I've seen in other threads make me question the motives of some members here.

Your ego is so huge that you just assume that you know what people are feeling/thinking/sayng without actually listening to them, and that we are all dying to know what you think because you have a friend of a friend who is a medical doctor!

It's your right to believe whatever you want. You seem to be pretty spiteful, though. That reply about who I know was to David C and that's because his ego is literally so huge he needs a whole slew of accounts just to contain it. I despise people who talk that way, so in that respect, I totally agree with you, I sounded like an arrogant asshole and I did mention this to others at the time (that's not my personality and it made me cringe just writing it). However, in the context of that moment, it seemed justifiable, and my friends are not 6 parts removed, lol. I know many consultants, GPs, dentists, etc, etc, who I hang out with regularly.

Since you don't have an MD after your name, I would never even think to seriously ask you how anxiety translates into physical symptoms such as ear pain, aural fullness, and increased tinnitus after damaging noise exposure, not to mention that would be a completely idiotic question to begin with.

Hardly any of us do, but we still talk about stuff and help each other on here. When was it a requirement that one had to be a Dr to post here? You got that from David C, so why isn't he/she (or you) asking others the same question? The obvious answer is because he/she is still bitter about me calling him/her out over the lies he/she said a while back. Even though this was ages ago and we have all moved on, it seems David can't help but bring his/her poison into every thread I'm involved in. I get confused when he/she is posting because he/she often posts replies to his/her own messages. It can get hard to follow sometimes.

With that off my chest I'll say that there really isn't anything more I can add.

All the best to you.

 

[Fangen]

If you are talking about me, you couldn't be further from the truth. It never occurs to me to justify my behaviour to anyone. I know what behaviour is right for me, and that's enough of a justification for me.

Not everything is about you Bill If I wanted to call you out, I would have. I am not, so you don't need to worry.

 

[Fangen]

You were met with anger and annoyance by me because you disregarded what I had to say about my situation and continued to insist that the fullness and pain I felt after sitting next to a live band for two hours straight was due to ear wax and/or my imagination, even AFTER I told you that the symptoms were only felt in one ear - the ear with tinnitus and 50 dB 4 Khz notched hearing LOSS! I wanted to drink your kool-aid and believe that it was all in my head but found it very difficult in the midst of a tinnitus spike in my bad ear, after a noisier than usual weekend. The logic just wasn't in your favor.

I do appreciate the time and effort you spent responding to my post and absolutely hold nothing against you, but I don't agree with your armchair diagnosis. It's almost as if you can't imagine that one can be physically affected by 70 dB or lower noise levels, which many of us are. On the bright side, you certainly helped to make this a popular thread!

Maybe you should direct your anger to sit next to a live band for 2 hours rather than Ed for suggesting there might be another reason to your fullness?

 

[Flamingo1]

Instead of answering my questions - where I was trying to understand what had happened - you continued to be rude and condescending in your replies.

No. I genuinely answered your questions as best as I could.

Over the last 6 months or so I have received some pretty vile messages and this shows how the tone has changed over the last 4 years.

Really? I haven't received any vile messages in the two years I've been on here. Maybe it's you?...

That reply about who I know was to David C and that's because his ego is literally so huge he needs a whole slew of accounts just to contain it.

See my comment above.

When was it a requirement that one had to be a Dr to post here? You got that from David C, so why isn't he/she (or you) asking others the same question?

Okay, so now I can't/don't think for myself? Really, Ed, you're making this much too easy for me. And I've never met any females named David.

The obvious answer is because he/she is still bitter about me calling him/her out over the lies he/she said a while back.

Whatever is going on between you and David, keep me out of it!

We all are here because we have hearing issues and are going through own personal hell to some extent or another. I do believe you are genuinely trying to help. With that, my sincerest gratitude to you, @Ed209 and everyone else on this forum.

 

[Jiri]

All the best to you.

You tried to comfort and help the best you could while also providing some interesting materials in support of your claims. You also highlighted the importance of getting a proper medical examination to rule out possible acu trauma.

As for the 'self-appointed TT experts' comment, I understand you are a sound engineer - so within the field of physics of sound you actually are an expert. Who also has tinnitus & is a verified user here. Something to consider.

Ultimately, all that matters is that @Flamingo1 's tinnitus flare-up has wore down. If you were right here then that's only a good thing, in my opinion. Don't add fuel to the fire by further replying to the hate messages directed to you.

Cheers.

 

[Flamingo1]

Maybe you should direct your anger to sit next to a live band for 2 hours rather than Ed for suggesting there might be another reason to your fullness?

It wasn't a suggestion; it was an insistence that the fullness was due to anything other than sound.

 

[Bill Bauer]

so within the field of physics of sound you actually are an expert.

The only problem is that there haven't been any studies about what noises are safe and what noises are dangerous for T sufferers, so I am not sure how his expertise might be useful here.

 

[david c]

@Ed209 Oh dear- more lies and drivel from the man for whom the whole of Tinnitus Talk is one big ego trip. We've already had to call you out for your claims to be able to diagnose health conditions and have superior medical knowledge on here - all of which are entirely delusional. As for the claims I have multiple accounts on here - simply lies - I've asked in the past for him to name one other account on here he believes to be mine - so far he has failed to come up with one.

 

[Bill Bauer]

By the way, there hasn't been any studies into what kind of a noise is safe and what is not safe (and is capable of causing permanent spikes) for tinnitus sufferers. So science has nothing to do with it.

@Ed209 Care to comment about the above?

Since the statement above is true (if it is not, please provide the links to the studies that I haven't been aware of), please acknowledge that your posts have been misleading. Thank you in advance!

An example of a misleading post:

Based on her initial story it seemed really far fetched that any acoustic trauma could have occurred, and it's not my idea of what's safe and what isn't, but medical science's.

 

[GSC]

Just gonna crash this thread real quick since all of you are on and arguing.

Here, do something useful.

https://www.statnews.com/feature/stat-madness/bracket/

 

[Jack Straw]

Once the science comes out about a lot of questions that are argued here to no end, there will be people who still say, "but this doesn't follow what anecdotal reports say, which means this science is bullshit. We must continue to follow anectodal reports as fact."

Anyone wanna bet $5?

I'm not saying I'm right or have all the answers, I'm just saying anecdotal reports are flawed and there is a reason why real science communities don't take them seriously.

 

[Jazzer]

If you are talking about me, you couldn't be further from the truth. It never occurs to me to justify my behaviour to anyone. I know what behaviour is right for me, and that's enough of a justification for me.

You can also do what the guidelines for the healthy people tell you is responsible (but what the experiences of many people here imply is IRRESPONSIBLE/RECKLESS), and end up developing a permanent spike in tinnitus. Now what?

No, that wasn't it. A were making B aware that there is a Risk that B will develop a permanent spike as a result of certain behaviours that B would naturally think are safe. That was all. At that point the people in group C tried to shut A up.

Nobody had done the above, though. Saying an activity is risky is not the same as saying that there is a 100% chance that the activity will turn out badly.

From what I understand - Bill recommends erring on the right side of caution, and I believe he is right.

The only person who has experience of our Tinnitus is ourselves.
I personally will trust nobody else's advice on what care to take, whatever qualifications they have.

Common sense says that we should all take the responsibility for our own caretaking.
That's me folks.
Over and out.
xx

 

[Greg Sacramento]

@Jazzer When I first got severe hearing loss tinnitus from ear syringing, my T settled down a bit, but still moderately severe at year four. Then for the next 2 years, I used protection when vacuuming, lawn mover use and sometimes for highway travel.

Then I got added severe physical tinnitus and most sounds break up. Many of my physical problems have close relationship to my ears. With severe artery and nerve damage of jaw and neck and a straighten c spine, I can't wear headphone protection as it compresses physical problems and I receive an increase in T and it's not always just a spike. Electrical and moving air sounds bother me even at moderate levels.

We are all different and how do we know what differences a person may have. Often one has walked in the ER wanting pred saying that my tinnitus spiked at a concert and I was far from the stage and speakers and wearing ear protection. So many considerations are needed including possible physical issues/reactions of ears, jaw, facial, oral, head, neck/shoulders, respiratory and heart with or without ear protection.

 

[Bill Bauer]

Once the science comes out about a lot of questions that are argued here to no end, there will be people who still say, "but this doesn't follow what anecdotal reports say, which means this science is bullshit. We must continue to follow anectodal reports as fact."

Anecdotal reports can't be used to estimate probabilities. Anecdotal reports CAN be used to establish that something is Possible. This is called "a case study" and a significant fraction of peer-revewed medical literature (what you refer to as "SCIENCE") consists of case studies.

The anecdotal evidence that you refer to establishes that certain noises that most people would think of as being safe, can cause T spikes for T sufferers.

For numerous examples of case studies related to T, see
https://www.tinnitustalk.com/thread...time-dealing-with-tinnitus.34104/#post-424622

I'm just saying anecdotal reports are flawed and there is a reason why real science communities don't take them seriously.

Anecdotal reports can't be used to estimate probabilities, and of course if one could choose, one would want a double-blind study. However, anecdotal reports/case studies Are indeed useful when no other studies are available.

 

[Tanni]

But as our Tinnitus is so individual to us, how might anecdotal reports from someone else help? We all have different triggers, and if someone new to Tinnitus were to avoid them all in case one applied to her, they would end up unable to live a decent life.

I personally think that it's the fear of a permanent increase that makes everyone so dependant on anecdotal reports. If we could establish that mostly spikes are temporary (and Bill Bauer has great info on this) people would be more comfortable simply trying things out for themselves.

 

[Bill Bauer]

But as our Tinnitus is so individual to us, how might anecdotal reports from someone else help? We all have different triggers, and if someone new to Tinnitus were to avoid them all in case one applied to her, they would end up unable to live a decent life.

You are right, nothing is certain. This has to do with Probabilities. Anecdotal reports establish that something has the potential to cause louder T. If you do that activity, you are increasing the chance that your T will get louder. If you learn from the anecdotal report [by the way, we are not talking about one person making a post on this forum sometime over the past 10 years, we are talking about the same patterns being reported on a weekly (and sometimes on a daily) basis] you could abstain from the activity, reducing the probability of giving debilitating T to yourself.

If we could establish that mostly spikes are temporary (and Bill Bauer has great info on this) people would be more comfortable simply trying things out for themselves.

I agree that the vast majority of spikes end up being temporary. However, those spikes can't be promoting healing. It is likely that they are interfering with healing. It seems to me that the spikes for a person with T are analogous to pain for a person with a broken arm. Both are signals from the body. If someone breaks an arm and feels pain after doing an activity that used to be ok for them, they will likely stop. The pain will eventually subside. However, if you keep doing something that results in your broken arm hurting, Eventually you will likely end up totally messing up your arm.

If you keep giving yourself temporary spikes, it is possible that eventually you might end up with a permanent spike. In other words it is possible that, either every time you get a spike, there is a small chance that the spike is permanent, so the probability that at least one of X spikes is permanent grows with X. Or every time you get a spike, the probability that it will be permanent is higher.