While I agree with the sentiment of "don't listen to the polls, just vote," what we can take away from polls is that Trump is slowly but steadily hemorrhaging support. I'm telling you, this isn't 2016 or even 2020. Whatever leash the Republicans were once able to keep Trump on, even if it barely worked, is gone. The masters of spin that helped bail Trump out of trouble in previous elections are gone. 2024 is Donald Trump unfiltered, and it is going to freak people out like nothing we have seen with his man before.
One major problem I have with the current state of polling is how outright garbage and broken it has become.
Like seriously:
1. Polls have repeatedly shown Trump's standing in GOP primaries is higher than actual results. So yes, Trump is not as great as we're being led to believe when looking at his actual primary results. Polls have been overestimating Trump.
2. Polls, a couple of months back, repeatedly showed Dean Phillips, the now defeated Democrat primary challenger, with a better chance than he actually had against Biden. Basically wasting everyone's time with his challenge. He even wrote this on X/Twitter back in March: "
When the NYT/Sienna poll shows me at 12%, you better believe it is flawed, "Only 5% even know who I am."
3. Polls have repeatedly shown Biden as weaker than he actually is.
And don't even get me started on the other obvious structural issues with polling, like sample sizes. Seriously, I see these "national polls" talk about how they asked less than 1000 people scattered across 3-4 states their questions and then base their results on that ridiculously small sample size... It's just shameful, honestly. I roll my eyes every time.
Polling companies seem clueless on how to fix these issues. Another problem is that nearly every major polling organization (probably all of them, though I can't be sure) still insists on using landline telephones for surveys. The demographics of those who still have landlines and answer calls from unknown numbers to take part in polls tend to be older, white, and conservative. I'm pretty sure pollsters have been aware of this problem for a while now.
For all we know, Trump could get absolutely demolished this November. It's too early to tell.