Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19) and Tinnitus

When @Bill Bauer and I are in lockstep agreement about something the world must actually be ending.

If we want to be conspiracy minded about this and say "politics", let's take that argument to its logical extreme and say "an engineered plague from a global elite cabal, being used as a test system to flex what shutting down various major countries and travel arteries looks like"

And then let's take that argument over to some tinfoil forum like GodLikeProductions, because it's a crazy idea.

To believe this is politically motivated, don't you have to believe that basically all major world governments are working in collusion right now?

Occam's razor says, to me: some person ate some bat soup and got a weird virus with a scary profile that has exposed weaknesses in the global ability to respond to a pandemic.

I dunno why anyone would whine about people not dying; I know I'll be happy to be wrong.

 

If you look at the reported cases in Italy, a lot of them are among old people - I'm not talking about deaths or severe cases, just officially confirmed cases. As an example, 80+ yrs old represent about 22% of cases, but just 6.7% of the population in Lombardia, the most affected region (left and top, center plots). This suggests that the cases among old people enter the official statistics much more often than among young people. This hypothesis is supported by the fact that in most places in Italy people are tested only if either 1) they end up in hospital in bad conditions, or 2) they were in contact with someone positive and they show symptoms. The question is... how many untested positives are there?

To give a rough answer to this question, I assumed that 1) people get COVID with the same probability no matter their age 2) every 80+ person who got COVID was tested positive. This way, you can deduce the # of real cases among, say, 20yr olds, by multiplying the number of 20yr olds in the population (Lombardia, the most affected region - these numbers are on the left plot) by the fraction of 80+ yr olds that were tested positive. The numbers you get this way ('derived cases') are in the bottom, center plot. Notice how much larger they are for young people than the declared cases.

If you do the math, this calculation gives about 2.3 'hidden' cases for every official case in Italy, which in a way is good news since overall mortality should be divided by the same number (and herd immunity has developed by the same rate), and mortality for people below 80 is decreased compared to the 'raw' numbers (bottom right plot).

 

I've been operating on the assumption that virus occurred naturally.

The tendency for sociopaths to use a crisis to their advantage is hardly a new phenomenon.

 

Of course I never said and never meant that the ratio of Shuttle to airplane deaths was the same ratio as COVID-19 to flu deaths.

The point was to communicate your misunderstanding between total numbers vs percentage, which itself you misunderstood.

You seem like a smart guy, is this a troll?

 

If this reddit post is accurate, it's another anecdote (there are quite a few floating around) that Remdesivir may be effective for this and, crucially, it can be given under compassionate/expanded use. Might be something to ask about if anyone here or their loved ones gets severely affected (in available countries).

 

Passive aggressive and gormless. That's a really super combination for you.

 

What is the implied overall death rate based on the numbers in your model?

It could be the case that older people are more likely to catch COVID-19 [younger people's immune system can handle a larger number of viral particles than an older person's; when you wash anything, you are never reducing the number of viruses and bacteria on it to zero, you are simply reducing the bacterial/viral load]. I believe such a young person can still get infected later on, but I am not an expert and I can't be sure.

 

Just to understand, you're making a political point that the world is exaggerating the threat from COVID-19 as a way to undermine Trump, and as a Trump supporter, you're determined to point out the folly of what you view as a politically-motivated pseudo-scientific response?

And the fact that the difference in total fatality numbers between COVID-19 and flu can be explained through a timeline in which COVID-19 has only recently been introduced into humanity vs. annual flu deaths from global saturation, is less compelling to you than a belief that this is all some kind of global political conspiracy against Trump?

Would that be a fair summary of your position?

 

They have been testing aggressively in South Korea. Their figures indicate that 0.8% of all of the patients who test positive end up dying. So it would seem that it is reasonable to assume that 0.5-1% of everyone who catches it will end up dying. This is significantly higher than the corresponding figure for the seasonal flu.

 

Not passive aggressive, I was genuinely surprised that you misunderstood.

I apologize if it sounded like anything other than that.

 

As a former LICSW I can honestly say that Covert Narcissists like you are the absolute worst to deal with.

 

@Bndsmheowqhe Are you sure all of the people who die as a result of this virus get counted as having died from it?! The authorities might not test one for the virus after one dies.

 

Very soon after first news of this virus, I took a short US market option position. I made a quick 100% return and then sold because I can't watch financial markets and news 24/5 with my state of health. If I had keep my short position, I be up 700%. I also considered some puts on certain stocks where they are up well over a 1000% and some mask manufacturing companies where they are up 1200%. Money is no good to me with my pain and not being able to leave my home anyways.

A global financial crisis including corporate debt from this virus will present a lower quality of life for many people in many ways. Financial markets will continue to crash and all sector structures will fall like a house of cards.

Panic is setting in from this virus in my area in California and hospitals are not prepared to handle this.

 

What do you think the Dow and S&P will bottom at?

 

The main reason people need to stock up is so that they can afford remaining indoors if they get the virus. If you get the coronavirus it'll take 1-2 weeks to run its course, plus it's prudent to stay in 1-2 weeks more just to make sure it's gone and you're no longer a carrier.

People with 2-4 weeks of stockpiles can do this, and thus, their personal R0 will be zero. People who don't have stocks, though, will either need someone to fetch stuff for them (small oof), or venture out themselves (big oof). So having 2-4 weeks of supplies on hand should actually be considered an essential civic duty.

Stocking up for a year and buying a hundred thousand rounds of ammo would be stupid, though.

 

Is "herd immunity" the reason why pandemics die out around the 4 month period? And what week are we in here in the US?

 

The problem with this view is that short of a massive amount of people dying, nothing will prove to you that this disease is in fact both more deadly and more highly infectious than the ordinary flu.

If the number of deaths doesn't go up very much in a few months, you will say "see I told you that this was all an overreaction". But that's not true is it? If the number of deaths doesn't go exponential, it's because the mitigation and social distancing measures we are taking by closing schools/arenas/etc worked, not because the disease isn't deadly enough.

You keep on bringing up statistics to compare this to the flu when this is in fact something very different. And I can only say that I feel relieved that you are not in any position of power to make decisions for the health and safety of citizens anywhere.

Consider these points:
- In an ordinary flu season, are there many reports of ICU beds overwhelmed? How many people cannot receive a ventilator or ECMO machine or be intubated due to flu complications during an entire flu season because there are not enough beds? And how many have had to be turned away in just 2 months time from COVID-19?
- Does the ordinary flu impart lung damage to people, causing shortness of breath when they walk to >15% of those that recover? This is taken from a recent study of people who had recovered from COVID-19 in Hong Kong.
- Does the flu even in the worst cases cause ICU stays of >20 days? Because from everything I have read average ICU stays for COVID-19 patients are 1.5 to 2 times longer than those of patients with the flu who develop pneumonia or other complications. And while that may not seem like a big difference, a long ICU stay means less beds for others, and means you reach maximum capacity faster and have to turn away more people.
- Let's talk about infectiousness as well. The flu has an R0 of around 1.5, while COVID-19 has an estimated R0 of between 2-8. The range is so large because they really have not had much time to analyze the data, but my personal estimate is that the R0 is way higher than 2. If I had to guess I would say between 5-7, which means it's doubling time is orders of magnitude shorter than the doubling time for the flu.

Of course, please don't let any of the doctors, scientists, policy makers, or corporations convince you that this is dangerous. Indeed, many people feel this is an overreaction or unnecessary disruption to their lives. Lastly, you talk about how much damage this is causing to the US economy. I actually disagree in the long term picture. Yes, short term assets are dropping, but this was a bubble that was going to burst soon-ish anyway, and this black swan event just happened to be the pin to burst that bubble. Second, I see lots of long term positives coming from this event, not the least of which are:

1) equities are finally resetting to close to reasonable levels which actually allows younger people an opportunity to get into the market

2) the US is finally realizing the cost of having all their manufacturing in one country (namely China) and I think this will have a great effect on both getting companies to diversify their supply chains and reduce just-in-time supply chain practices

3) I think this crisis is just what the US health care system needed to be forced to be more efficient (accommodate surge capacity testing, treatment, reduction of bureaucracy in drug development and approval. I think they've been able to be so slow and inefficient because they never had a real crisis to deal with. And this is will absolutely force them to be more agile. That agility will likely carryover and be a huge benefit for getting future medicines/tests to market faster, which in turn will enhance the overall quality of life (just not in the near near term).

4)I think another large positive is that people will finally become more realistic about healthcare reform. Yes, it needs to happen. But all the talk about how it should happen has so far been too simplistic. A real life SHTF crisis is just what this country needed to actually think through what healthcare reform means, and what is needed in that reform aside from just access to care and drugs/treatments being cheaper. Yes, we can make drugs/treatments cheaper and access to care cheap or free, but if that means that you can't see a doctor when you are sick because all the hospital beds are full, or you can't get a ventilator because the hospital doesn't have enough, then that cheap or free healthcare suddenly isn't serving you very well. I think the discussion will shift to what we, as Americans, are willing to pay for health care that will meet our needs.

Of course, I also realize that all the printing and supply chain shocks are going to lead to (and already leading to) lots of inflation. But do I think that this is an overzealous response that will cause lasting damage to the US economy? No, not at all. In the short term, it will suck, but economic shocks like this are good in the long term to introduce resilience, improve efficiency, and bring assets back to reasonable levels.

 

Agree on the 2-4 weeks, but I'm a bit surprised people don't already have a spare supply of two weeks for just in case, which kind of diminishes the need for extensive stocking right now... I always assumed everyone had that by default. It's probably easier to do when living on your own, I guess.

 

It’s going from bad to worse over here. My mom now has it as well, that is, a fever, a cough and shortness of breath as of this morning. It started with a sore throat last night which is how my wife and I’s started. My mom and dad are both high risk, particularly my dad who is 80 and has heart failure and many other problems to contend with right now. I had to buy him a urine bottle as he can no longer get up the stairs; his knee swelled up with water about a week ago and he can’t be seen because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Our city seems to have been hit really hard as it was one of only a few places that the government decided to set up a drive-through testing station in. Two have died at our city’s hospital. My wife’s sisters work also has many off with flu-like symptoms, so it seems to be everywhere. One of my students rang me yesterday to see how I was getting on and offered to help in any way he could which I thought was really kind of him. He is also a clinical lead consultant (different to the other guy who texted me) and he said they are preparing for war at the hospital as loads of measures have been brought in which I won’t detail on here, but it highlighted the seriousness.

To be honest with you, this weekend has been pure hell. Trying to look after a hyperactive and fussy toddler when my wife and I are both ill has been extremely difficult. Nobody can help as we are on lockdown. I still have a fever and I still feel really rough, my mouth aches all over, and I’m coughing relentlessly. I feel like I want to lie in bed for the day and drink some lemsip or something, but we still have to look after our daughter, and we still need to put her antibiotics in her eyes 4 times a day, and clear the gunk away. You can imagine how difficult that is when you’re ill.

Anyway, that’s my update.

BTW, my tinnitus is louder but mine always gets louder with upper respiratory illnesses, so I’m really not too bothered about it.

 

Catastrophizing the situation? The situation IS a catastrophe! If there were no politics, no nations, no newspapers, it would still be a catastrophe.

 

Under normal circumstances I have about 3 to 4 days worth of food. I'm curious why you think 2-4 weeks is default. I also wonder where people would put all that excess food. They must have more space than I have in my kitchenette.

I did try to stock up when I went to the market on Friday, but there were a lot of empty shelves. I bought five boxes of rice instead of my usual one and that made me feel safer. I bought a few frozen dinners (since the frozen fruit & vegetable freezer was completely empty). But there's no reason to buy more frozen dinners than my freezer will hold.

 

I think the US is an outlier here and it may be something that slows down our spread. In the US, it's probably more common to "buy in bulk" at places like Costco to save money. I briefly lived in the UK and i can say that it's not all that common there due to space issues (I never saw a single home deep freezer when I was there, for instance) and I imagine most of the world is the same.

 

I'm sorry to hear about your situation and contracting COVID-19. Especially for your dad. Are you doing any at home treatments to deal with the symptoms? It seems taking Mucinex and monitoring O2 levels with finger tip monitor might be helpful.

 

@Bndsmheowqhe you seem a lot more interested in continuously doubling down on your position without facts, than with even admitting that you could be wrong. This is probably why @Lane said you sound "like a Trumper" -- she never actually accused you of supporting trump, she accused you of arguing in the same way that many of his supporters do online: fervently, baselessly, and without any interest in examining other viewpoints.

Further, you throw out weird tidbits like living on an island so this doesn't matter, then drop that you are/were a LICSW when you need that to attack someone else's character because you don't like what they are saying. I have no idea if either of these things are true and would not be at all surprised to find out you're a line cook in Des Moines.

I'm real happy to admit I could be wrong on this, and certainly hope I am. For me, "social distancing" is extremely easy to do; I generally leave home around once a week to shop and for a social engagement. Simply skipping that and taking a wait and see attitude is real easy for me to do; hence, I think it would be pretty foolish not to.

 

@Ed209
Thinking of you brother, and just hoping that everything turns out as well as can be expected.
You have so much on your plate.

We are all clearly in the firing line with this wretched thing - and all we can do is to try to limit human contacts and try to be as careful as possible.

Whenever I have a fever I try to keep my body awash with hot drinks - hot water in particular - to wash bacteria in my throat, down into my stomach, bypassing my lungs.

Who knows - we can only try to be cautious.
We have an eminent French doctor in our family who has recommended getting hold of a preventative supplement called Lactoferrin, which he would like to see us all use.
We ordered some - they took our money - then told us it is currently out of stock and we would have to wait!!

Best wishes Ed
Dave x

 

I have no idea what that means other than you like to insult people on the internet who disagree with you with psychobabble.

Anyway, good luck to you, whoever you are.

This is an important thread. Perhaps there should be a separate thread for people who want to argue it's all a political conspiracy rather than have that derail this one.

 

I’m not a confirmed case as I haven’t been tested and neither have any of the other cases that we're aware of. One thing’s for sure, it’s certainly viral whatever it is, and it’s caused all of us to develop a fever and a cough as well as the usual aching muscles. I’d say the chance of it being Covid-19 is pretty good, but it’s not conclusive.

 

I always have two rows of canned beans, soup and some pasta in storage. Whenever I'm too lazy to go shopping I grab the oldest can, consume the contents and replace it with a new one. This keeps the cans relatively "fresh" without the need of ever stocking up. Apart from that, a bit of meat in the freezer which is replaced in the same way.

It's mostly meant for if I get ill and don't feel like getting out of the house, but it would supply me for two weeks if necessary. Thinking about it, I must admit that I don't know what caused me to use this system, it probably grew on me at some point...

 

Reading about the UK's COVID-19 policies now: are they trying to be the control group?

I hope people are at least being cautious at the community level...