Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19) and Tinnitus

[linearb]

https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/03/13/gilead-coronavirus-covid19-clinical-trials/

The paper, published on a preprint server without peer review, described the epidemiology, clinical course, and viral characteristics of the first 12 U.S. patients with Covid-19, only three of whom were treated with remdesivir, which was developed to treat the Ebola virus but shelved after proving less effective than other drugs during testing. The analysis was conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Covid-19 response team.

The team looked at patients with mild to moderately severe illness, which was detected early, and the findings indicated that "the window for diagnosis is long" and hospitalized patients showed signs of worsening in the second week after illness began. But RBC Capital Markets analysts examined individual patient data and decided the Gilead drug showed mixed results, at best.

"Based on our review of the clinical and virological courses, we believe remdesivir's contribution to efficacy remains unclear, and with a side-effect profile that may not be completely benign," the RBC analysts wrote in a note to investors. "We continue to see a less than 50/50 possibility that the drug is ultimately proven effective."

Of course, even if this drug worked like gangbusters, it's insanely expensive and scaling production to meet the needs of even 1% of Americans in this timeframe seems a little unlikely without federal intervention.

On the other hand, China can just snap their fingers and divert 100 pharma lines to producing whatever, because their corporations have absolutely no ability to argue with their authoritarian government.

I always have two rows of canned beans, soup and some pasta in storage.

Ditto and it sort of blows my mind that not all adults operate with this basic sensibility; however, I also realize that living in a place where it's literally impossible to get groceries after 8:30pm and where the roads to town are sometimes treacherously dangerous for days even with studded snow tires makes me a bit more prone to being woke on the idea of "what if mail stops and I can't get to town?" Here,t hat's not a Zombie Apocalypse thing, it's just "a thing that sometimes happens in January or February and which locals regard as no big deal" :-P

 

[linearb]

They have been testing aggressively in South Korea. Their figures indicate that 0.8% of all of the patients who test positive end up dying. So it would seem that it is reasonable to assume that 0.5-1% of everyone who catches it will end up dying. This is significantly higher than the corresponding figure for the seasonal flu.

This is also equivilent to the figures which the Trump Administration provided.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corn...ce-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/

In congressional testimony this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the top medical experts in the Trump administration, said that the new coronavirus "is ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu."

How can this be both a political football being used against Trump by the left, and also be a political football that Trump is using for.... reasons?

 

[Bndsmheowqhe]

Catastrophizing the situation? The situation IS a catastrophe! If there were no politics, no nations, no newspapers, it would still be a catastrophe.

As of right now 60 deaths in the US which over a 3 month period compared to 34,200 deaths during the 6 months of the 2018-2019 Influenza season. We've yet to experience this supposed "exponential growth" that we keep hearing about.

 

[linearb]

I'm very open to the idea that some governments are using this as a way to flex various apparatus of power, but, given the completely scattershot and overall disorganized response in the US, it's hard for me to stretch my brain enough to think that's happening here.

For a recent precedent, look at the Boston bombing. I do not believe any of the wilder conspiracy theories about that, but what I do believe is that federal and state apparatus saw it as an excellent excuse to test what martial law and community lockdown look like in the US: within hours, you had entire neighborhoods locked down, and SWAT teams doing door to door searches. This was unprecedented in recent US history, but people more or less just let it go because they were terrified of terrorism.

So, China is doing what we'd call an "insane, authoritarian lockdown" (I'd agree), and their numbers are dropping at a given rate. It will be interesting to see how the inability of the US and Europe to do that for reasons of personal rights, impact the spread of the virus.

Whatever happens here, we're getting fodder for virology PhD theses for decades.

 

[GregCA]

This article has nice animations that show how/why containment works. You can skip the text and just watch the simulations if you are in a hurry. It's a simplified model that has its flaws, but it's good enough as a first order approximation for people who are not math-inclined.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[Bndsmheowqhe]

you seem a lot more interested in continuously doubling down on your position

I'm being relentlessly assailed for not hating Trump enough despite having not voted for him or supporting anything he's done politically.

without facts

I've cited plenty of facts and statistics. I even took the time to put together a fairly detailed assessment of the situation in Italy.

admitting that you could be wrong.

You're projecting.

This is probably why you sound "like a Trumper"

I can see where repeated statements like "I voted for HRC" might be misinterpreted as support for Trump.

she accused you of arguing in the same way that many of his supporters do online

You mean disagreeing with you.

fervently

In response to repeated attacks.

baselessly

TIL that facts and statistics = baseless.

and without any interest in examining other viewpoints.

Again you're projecting.

Further, you throw out weird tidbits like living on an island

You're upset that I happen to live in a more desirable part of the world than you do. In the future I'll be sure to get your blessing before I share any pertinent information about myself. It's good to know that posting pictures of one's Marijuana plants is relevant to the topic at hand.

then drop that you are/were a LICSW when you need that to attack someone else's character because you don't like what they are saying.

The individual in question was displaying traits that are consistent with one of the most unpleasant personality disorders imaginable. Disengaging with someone like that is the only sensible response. I also find it interesting that my history as a mental health practitioner seems to bother you.

and would not be at all surprised to find out you're a line cook in Des Moines.

Retired young and living in a tropical paradise but I'm not enough of an elitist to s**t on someone that lives in Iowa or happens to work an honest job in the restaurant industry.

I'm real happy to admit I could be wrong on this

No you're not.

and certainly hope I am.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Simply skipping that and taking a wait and see attitude is real easy for me to do

Unfortunately that's not the case for many people in my area. The part of the world that you claimed I don't live in is heavily dependent on tourism. Despite being a tropical paradise many of the people living here are living below the poverty level and are one paycheck away from financial disaster. Seeing firsthand how the partisan scare-tactics are directly affecting hardworking honest people with families is heartbreaking. It's going to be years before the local economy fully recovers from this.

 

[Jack V]

Ditto and it sort of blows my mind that not all adults operate with this basic sensibility; however, I also realize that living in a place where it's literally impossible to get groceries after 8:30pm and where the roads to town are sometimes treacherously dangerous for days even with studded snow tires makes me a bit more prone to being woke on the idea of "what if mail stops and I can't get to town?" Here,t hat's not a Zombie Apocalypse thing, it's just "a thing that sometimes happens in January or February and which locals regard as no big deal" :-P

I didn't even own a can opener until a couple days ago.

 

[linearb]

It'd be great if we can use social distancing to not follow this trend line!!

edit: it'd also be great if we could get enough test kits out to know if we're following this trend line or not!

 

[hans799]

Reading about the UK's COVID-19 policies now: are they trying to be the control group?

Britain is finally free. No more pesky EU which could interfere with the human experiment their government has decided to run on them!

A few years ago I wouldn't have believed that the governments in my area (Eastern Europe) will actually be competent in the face of a major crisis while Great Britain, the shining exemplar of the West, will appear to be led by a group of rhesus monkeys.

 

[Lane]

Linus Pauling (who lived to age 93), was well known for his advocacy of Vitamin C therapy. What most people don't know is that his interest in Vitamin C was piqued by a rural country doctor from N. Carolina (Frederick Klenner) who practiced back in the 1940's. This doctor was at a loss as to how to treat the many children coming in with polio. But having read some interesting articles on IV Vitamin C, he thought why not give it a try on these children with polio. In short, he treated 60 kids, and they were all healed within 3-5 days.

You might find this account somewhat amusing--as I did. As I mentioned, Dr. Klenner used IV Vitamin C for many years for successfully treating polio (and a variety of other ailments) that came his way in rural North Carolina. After a while, he became so confident in the efficacy of Vitamin C, that he would immediately hook up an incoming patient to an IV before even doing an intake. Invariably, the patient would almost always start to improve--while they spoke! -- He also came up with quite a successful treatment for tetanus (very difficult to treat), combing IV Vit. C with specific antibiotics.

A summary of the maxim that governed his approach to his health care practice is summed up in the following: "the patient should "get large doses of vitamin C in all pathological conditions while the physician ponders the diagnosis." -- When I first read that many years ago, I bagan to think in terms of whether a seismic paradigm shift could occur if modern health care followed this same approach. In essense, having a Vitamin C based health care system. Not much money in that however. But I have a hope this worldwide pandemic, with IV Vit. C being put to the test in China, could be a step that direction.

 

[Lane]

I can see where repeated statements like "I voted for HRC" might be misinterpreted as support for Trump.

Well, when it comes to your downplaying the potential fallout from the coronavirus, you talk like a trumper, and act like a trumper. So it's pretty easy to asssume you are a trumper. I'll take you at your word that you aren't, but can you at least admit you're thinking on this--and your continual injection of politics--is awfully close to that of Trump and his lackey news organization, fox news?

This is probably why @Lane said you sound "like a Trumper" -- she never actually accused you of supporting trump, she accused you of arguing in the same way that many of his supporters do online: fervently, baselessly, and without any interest in examining other viewpoints.

Hey @linearb -- Just to clarify: "she" is actually a "he"

 

[Bill Bauer]

As of right now 60 deaths in the US which over a 3 month period compared to 34,200 deaths during the 6 months of the 2018-2019 Influenza season. We've yet to experience this supposed "exponential growth" that we keep hearing about.

I hope you are right.

 

[Bill Bauer]

I've cited plenty of facts and statistics. I even took the time to put together a fairly detailed assessment of the situation in Italy.

How come you never responded to my response to your assessment? The gist is that your critique doesn't apply to South Korea, and the data from that country indicates that 0.5-1% of everyone who gets it dies. Also, since this disease overloads the healthcare system, people who Aren't suffering from this virus will end up dying as the doctors prioritize treating younger patients with the virus over cancer patients.

 

[SugarMagnolia]

I think the US is an outlier here and it may be something that slows down our spread. In the US, it's probably more common to "buy in bulk" at places like Costco to save money. I briefly lived in the UK and i can say that it's not all that common there due to space issues (I never saw a single home deep freezer when I was there, for instance) and I imagine most of the world is the same.

I'm in the USA. I have a small city apartment with a kitchenette. There are lots of grocery stores in my neighborhood, so shopping a little at a time is normally the way to go. But of course some people have houses so they might have those deep freezers you mention. For me, if I could clear out the entire frozen vegetable section of the market I would have nowhere to put it all.

 

[Bill Bauer]

the governments in my area (Eastern Europe) will actually be competent in the face of a major crisis while Great Britain, the shining exemplar of the West, will appear to be led by a group of rhesus monkeys.

It is not just Great Britain, and this is/will be true of many other areas, not just the handling of the virus. If you have been living in the Eastern Europe you are probably not aware that over the past 60 years (and most notably over the past 5 years) the West has been slowly becoming the new USSR.

 

[Lane]

economic shocks like this are good in the long term to introduce resilience, improve efficiency, and bring assets back to reasonable levels.

Hi @lcj -- Thank you for your remarkably astute post. I hope @Bndsmheowqhe takes the time to read it. Perhaps it will be a catalyst for him to consider modulating some of his current convictions.

 

[GregCA]

View attachment 37296

 

[Gabriel]

Here in France right after the president's speech all the zombies of the apocalypse went straight to supermakets to buy big stocks of items. I even saw on Instagram people with their car FULL. Like 4 months of supply at least. And most supermakets went out of stock of items.

While I laugh at them fighting for food and causing a 3h queue, I will just wait for a day in the next week, Wednesday or Thursday, when the supermaket will be empty of people, but full of food.

This behavior of panic is counterproductive, stupid, and even dangerous (people fighting, lots of people close to each other lol, great way to catch a virus just before staying home).

 

[linearb]

Hi @lcj -- Thank you for your remarkably astute post. I hope @Bndsmheowqhe takes the time to read it. Perhaps it will be a catalyst for him to consider modulating some of his current convictions.

there is a quote, about a horse, and water.

this is not that quote, but you know what I mean. (Trigger warning: David Lynch doing Lynch things).

 

[chamferman]

It's going from bad to worse over here. My mom now has it as well, that is, a fever, a cough and shortness of breath as of this morning. It started with a sore throat last night which is how my wife and I's started. My mom and dad are both high risk, particularly my dad who is 80 and has heart failure and many other problems to contend with right now. I had to buy him a urine bottle as he can no longer get up the stairs; his knee swelled up with water about a week ago and he can't be seen because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Our city seems to have been hit really hard as it was one of only a few places that the government decided to set up a drive-through testing station in. Two have died at our city's hospital. My wife's sisters work also has many off with flu-like symptoms, so it seems to be everywhere. One of my students rang me yesterday to see how I was getting on and offered to help in any way he could which I thought was really kind of him. He is also a clinical lead consultant (different to the other guy who texted me) and he said they are preparing for war at the hospital as loads of measures have been brought in which I won't detail on here, but it highlighted the seriousness.

To be honest with you, this weekend has been pure hell. Trying to look after a hyperactive and fussy toddler when my wife and I are both ill has been extremely difficult. Nobody can help as we are on lockdown. I still have a fever and I still feel really rough, my mouth aches all over, and I'm coughing relentlessly. I feel like I want to lie in bed for the day and drink some lemsip or something, but we still have to look after our daughter, and we still need to put her antibiotics in her eyes 4 times a day, and clear the gunk away. You can imagine how difficult that is when you're ill.

Anyway, that's my update.

BTW, my tinnitus is louder but mine always gets louder with upper respiratory illnesses, so I'm really not too bothered about it.

Hello Ed hope it gets better for you and your family. My wife and daughter are both unwell and we are self isolating.

 

[Ed209]

Hello Ed hope it gets better for you and your family. My wife and daughter are both unwell and we are self isolating.

Same to you. Take care of yourself and your family.

 

[Bill Bauer]

Hello Ed hope it gets better for you and your family. My wife and daughter are both unwell and we are self isolating.

Your government let you and your family down. They think of you and the other citizens as "the herd". How come you are attacking those who point that out?

 

[FGG]

You might find this account somewhat amusing--as I did. As I mentioned, Dr. Klenner used IV Vitamin C for many years for successfully treating polio (and a variety of other ailments) that came his way in rural North Carolina. After a while, he became so confident in the efficacy of Vitamin C, that he would immediately hook up an incoming patient to an IV before even doing an intake. Invariably, the patient would almost always start to improve--while they spoke! -- He also came up with quite a successful treatment for tetanus (very difficult to treat), combing IV Vit. C with specific antibiotics.

A summary of the maxim that governed his approach to his health care practice is summed up in the following: "the patient should "get large doses of vitamin C in all pathological conditions while the physician ponders the diagnosis." -- When I first read that many years ago, I bagan to think in terms of whether a seismic paradigm shift could occur if modern health care followed this same approach. In essense, having a Vitamin C based health care system. Not much money in that however. But I have a hope this worldwide pandemic, with IV Vit. C being put to the test in China, could be a step that direction.

Even if high dose IV vitamin C worked well for this, there is literally no way this idea would be mobilized in enough time (literally weeks) to be a useful recommendation for COVID-19. For one thing, there are very few doctors who are willing to do this therapy. Certainly not enough for the demand.

In addition, it is not universally safe. It probably is very safe for the vast majority of Asian and Caucasian people but other groups who carry a G6PD gene mutation more commonly can have bad side effects including widespread hemolysis. In fact, the one time I had IV Vitamin C, the practitioner refused to do it until I had that genetic test done (and I'm Caucasian).

For the record, I'm pro both Western and Alternative treatments if there is evidence behind them and there is evidence behind very high doses of C and neutrophil activation in the immune system but it isn't conclusively known if this is a good or bad thing for this particular virus yet. Immune activation can actually cause more lung damage in some more unusual viral cases. I am not saying this will be the case here but I am not sure we know yet as testing is ongoing.

I like high dose Vitamin C for some things. It honestly did a lot for the connective tissue pain I was having by (I assume) increasing cross linking (I'm not convinced I don't have a mild connective tissue disorder so may be why that was especially helpful) but imo I would be a bit cautious here.

 

[Kain]

There's a first confirmed case in my county. It's been real guys.

 

[valeri]

@Ed209

 

[El BUZZ]

Writing from south Spain now. Authorities have asked us to remain locked in our homes for at least two weeks. People risk a 6000€ fine if found walking on the street. Everything is closed except pharmacies, hospitals and supermarkets. Lots of businesses have gone bankrupt and absolute ruin in a matter of hours.

Then, in the middle of this scenario...

THIS: https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/03...pe-is-still-a-go-despite-travel-restrictions/

 

[Bndsmheowqhe]

The problem with this view is that short of a massive amount of people dying, nothing will prove to you that this disease is in fact both more deadly and more highly infectious than the ordinary flu.

The problem with this view is that I don't agree with you.

If the number of deaths doesn't go up very much in a few months, you will say "see I told you that this was all an overreaction".

If the number of deaths doesn't go up very much in a few months you will have been wrong.

this is in fact something very different.

You're correct. The Flu killed about 35,000 people in the US during a 6 month period in 2018-2019. Coronavirus has only killed 60 people during a 3 month period.

In an ordinary flu season, are there many reports of ICU beds overwhelmed?

Yes

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/11/flu-levels-rise-texas-officials-advise-public-be-aware/

How many people cannot receive a ventilator or ECMO machine or be intubated due to flu complications during an entire flu season because there are not enough beds?

How many people in the US cannot currently receive a ventilator or ECMO machine or be intubated due to Coronavirus complications because there are not enough beds?

Does the ordinary flu impart lung damage to people, causing shortness of breath

Yes.

"A protein in influenza virus that helps it multiply also damages lung epithelial cells"

"fluid accumulates in the lungs, making it difficult to breathe"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090717150302.htm

Does the flu even in the worst cases cause ICU stays of >20 days?

Yes.

"Hinderliter spent 58 days in the ICU"
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/carolinekee/healthy-man-flu-coma-almost-dies-vaccine

Let's talk about infectiousness as well. The flu has an R0 of around 1.5, while COVID-19 has an estimated R0 of between 2-8.

"Studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA"
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

"However, in almost every aspect that matters, R 0 is flawed."

"Diseases can persist with R 0 < 1, while diseases with R 0 > 1 can die out."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3157160/

Of course, please don't let any of the doctors, scientists, policy makers, or corporations convince you that this is dangerous.

Dr. Jeremy Faust:
"The numbers we've heard globally are likely to not reflect what we're going to see once testing captures everybody"
https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-new...rgues-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-suspected

"COVID-19 Isn't As Deadly As We Think"

"Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case."
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

"Vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit likens the situation to the swine flu epidemic of 2009. At one point, he said, the mortality rate was thought to be much higher than the 0.01 to 0.03% it turned out to be. He thinks the mortality rate for coronavirus will similarly plummet and the 'false notion that it is more likely to kill you than influenza' will disappear."
https://jewishjournal.com/commentary/columnist/311930/our-fears-coronavirus-are-overblown/
Dr. Offit believes there has been a "wild overreaction" to the disease.

Lastly, you talk about how much damage this is causing to the US economy. I actually disagree in the long term picture.

Alan Blinder (a former Federal Reserve vice chairman who now serves as a professor at Princeton)
"I wouldn't be one bit surprised if when we look back at the data, it is decided ... that the recession started in March."
https://markets.businessinsider.com...an-blinder-says-coronavirus-2020-3-1028986733

but this was a bubble that was going to burst soon-ish anyway

"Goldman Sachs' economists declared the U.S. economy all but recession-proof at the dawning of 2020"

"Pioneering economist Burton Malkiel was also bullish on the U.S. economy as the year began. Appearing on CNBC's Squawk on the Street, he said he could not spot a recession on the horizon."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/14/gol...as-recession-proof-in-january---it-wasnt.html

equities are finally resetting to close to reasonable levels which actually allows younger people an opportunity to get into the market

"The next recession will destroy millennials"
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/millennials-are-screwed-recession/596728/

"If a new recession comes before they've had a chance to get ahead, they likely face empty bank accounts and unknowable challenges" https://talkpoverty.org/2019/09/03/recession-millennials-last-one/

the US is finally realizing the cost of having all their manufacturing in one country (namely China)

US manufacturing output has been rising for some time, but manufacturing employment is falling, due to automation. It's fair to point out that, in other countries, a lot of manufacturing workers are employed, but that's because those countries have vast and very low-paid work forces, making it cheaper to hire more people than to automate. If we want to put more Americans to work, we have to pay them as little as workers in China or Bangladesh make, and that would be little benefit to the economy.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...uring-jobs-have-disappeared-output-has-grown/

I think this crisis is just what the US health care system needed to be forced to be more efficient

Leading up to the inevitable...

I think another large positive is that people will finally become more realistic about healthcare reform.

Demand for Socialized medicine.

But do I think that this is an overzealous response that will cause lasting damage to the US economy? No, not at all.

"Not every bear market is accompanied by an economic recession, but chances are high"

"To be sure, the majority of the bear markets in recent history — more than 70% — were accompanied by a recession"
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/14/not...-economic-recession-but-chances-are-high.html

"Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Chairman, slashed his U.S. GDP forecast to zero growth in the second and third quarters of this year, in a note titled U.S. Virus Recession."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/top-economist-ed-hyman-sees-zero-us-growth-next-two-quarters.html

"The stock market is usually a poor predictor of recessions—but this time it's right"
https://fortune.com/2020/03/13/stock-market-recession-predictors-2020/

 

[OnceUponaTime]

It's going from bad to worse over here. My mom now has it as well, that is, a fever, a cough and shortness of breath as of this morning. It started with a sore throat last night which is how my wife and I's started. My mom and dad are both high risk, particularly my dad who is 80 and has heart failure and many other problems to contend with right now. I had to buy him a urine bottle as he can no longer get up the stairs; his knee swelled up with water about a week ago and he can't be seen because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Our city seems to have been hit really hard as it was one of only a few places that the government decided to set up a drive-through testing station in. Two have died at our city's hospital. My wife's sisters work also has many off with flu-like symptoms, so it seems to be everywhere. One of my students rang me yesterday to see how I was getting on and offered to help in any way he could which I thought was really kind of him. He is also a clinical lead consultant (different to the other guy who texted me) and he said they are preparing for war at the hospital as loads of measures have been brought in which I won't detail on here, but it highlighted the seriousness.

To be honest with you, this weekend has been pure hell. Trying to look after a hyperactive and fussy toddler when my wife and I are both ill has been extremely difficult. Nobody can help as we are on lockdown. I still have a fever and I still feel really rough, my mouth aches all over, and I'm coughing relentlessly. I feel like I want to lie in bed for the day and drink some lemsip or something, but we still have to look after our daughter, and we still need to put her antibiotics in her eyes 4 times a day, and clear the gunk away. You can imagine how difficult that is when you're ill.

Anyway, that's my update.

BTW, my tinnitus is louder but mine always gets louder with upper respiratory illnesses, so I'm really not too bothered about it.

Hang in there, Ed. Hope you and your family feel better soon.

 

[Greg Sacramento]

What do you think the Dow and S&P will bottom at?

Since last night - Saturday, now being Sunday, pre markets DOW futures are heading down again, down 0ver 1200 points. Gold and silver has finally reversed upwards, only because the International Monetary Fund is taking action in hopes to control a worldwide total collapse, but this won't stop the terror. So a worldwide financial collapse will not be a friend to those with the virus or those that need pain treatments or other medical services such as for tinnitus. I care deeply about that.

 

[Bill Bauer]

Leading up to the inevitable...
Demand for Socialized medicine.

Socialized medicine is what causes delays in treatments and only the elites having access to treatments...